The imponderables of our times

There are some things we can say for sure about how we see ourselves moving with the times. 

To glimpse what could happen in the world we live in,we have to understand what researchers have gathered about the difference between machines and man. Big Data or Data Analytics is
now commonplace,but human decision making still dominates and will continue to have to interpret it to make sense of it. The point of data is to refine our intuition,but at the same time,a great deal of intuition is needed to make sense of any data. As Immanuel Kant, the German Philosopher,a century ago observed, "theory without data is groundless,but data without theory is uninterpretable. 

Will Interest rates rise in 2015?

Interest Rate Expectations

Experts predict that interest rates may rise this year 2015,which may lead to businesses and individuals becoming unable to service the additional interest costs. 

However the Bank of England has held rates at 0.50% for the 71 month  (since 2009) in a row and also kept its stimulus package of QE,whilst Funding for Lending has overtaken Quantitative Easing. This has allowed Banks and Building Societies to take cheap cash and pass it on to businesses and mortgage borrowers. 

More recent Bank of England has switched off the funding for mortgages through this channel.Those who benefited most in the mortgage market were those with big deposits. Now Banks are being accused of hoarding cash and shunning SME's.

UK economy 

With falling oil prices and falling inflation,the pressure to raise interest rates has been temporarily removed. 

"If as forecast inflation would average 1% in the first three months of 2015 rising to 1.4% in the fourth quarter and 1.6% by 2016,there remains a real possibility of an interest rate hike later on in 2015. 

Britain is seeing a better type of "low inflation" than the struggling Eurozone ,but supermarket price wars and slippery energy costs cannot be counted for ever. 

Plans to off set rate rise

If interest rates rise, it is possible Governments often could make other changes to soften the blow,the effect can be to spread out the impact over time. But businesses and individuals should however not overlook but plan for the changes and shop around for the best deals whilst making contingency plans.

Savers as sufferers

Soothers for savers has become necessary with the Coalition Government offering special Pension Bonds for Pensioners over 65. 

Contemplating further inducements

Should deflation cause further concern in the short term, it is highly likely that the Bank of England could well reduce the Bank rate to an all time low of  0.25% and progressively increase the rate well after the General Election in  07 May 2015.

Change Agents of Sri Lanka

There was a defining moment, a cataclysmic break from the past that was brooding in the minds of men and women from all walks of life in Sri Lanka, that could not have been contained any longer, when the Presidential election was called on 8 January 2015. It turned out to be the birth pangs of a new way of governance, a national interest government, a new vision and a way out of the cobwebs of antiquated thinking,which served the war effort but awaited evaluation. This ended in the change we have seen in the election of President Maithripala Sirisena,as the sixth President of DSR of Sri Lanka.

It could have not happened by itself,without many change agents,all doing their part to bring about this rebirth. The most potent of all the Change Agents,was former President Mahinda Rajapaksa himself.He was undoubtedly a charismatic agent of this change.Without debating the pros and cons of how he brought about this change,let us consider the ingredients of this change.

We live in a world where there is a time span for leaders to perform,where talent has become the core currency of competitiveness,not only for business but also for national economies alike. Yet,there is often a mismatch all too frequent between systems of government and delivery of peoples' wants and needs with the passage of time. Governments far too often are cocooned in complacency and fail to read the pulse of their general public. Foreign and national policies are also not clearly enumerated or even in place,for a seamless transition. 

Civil service and Government policy

There is the saying "Governments come and go, but the Civil Service is here to stay."

When Governments manipulate civil administration to suit the exigencies or politics of the times,there is a gulf of widening proportions which leave much for the imagination. But,by the very nature of this administrative machinery,the fact is that when a threshold of tolerance is reached,even the Civil Service code is breached.This perhaps,could have eroded the situation in Sri Lanka over time and caused the sea change, we see today.

The "policy profession" as the Civil Service would preferred to be called,can be highly innovative. "It helps the government of the day develop and implement its policies as effectively as possible.They see their career,learning and development anchored around policy work.They share a common set of transferable behavioural skills to encourage and bring together evidence, politics and delivery to support ministers in achieving outcomes for the government."

There is no denial that in Sri Lanka it was not only politicians of all shades,religious leaders but also Civil administration helped as Change Agents in ushering in a new era of tolerance and civil order.

Change in Policy Objectives 

Jatika Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) Leader Anura Dissanayake recently took to task Finance Ministers past and present for not outlining the country's proposed economic targets as reflected in the budgets. The result is that the business community operates in an unstable environment fraught with uncertainty and because of this when there are times when they are raking in profit,they attempt to capitalise on such situations by striving for excessive gains. He added referring to the recent budget:"This is not a budget.It has no long term economic plan.It has no tax formula.It has merely reduced tax from essential food items and imposed taxes on various other sectors,thereby   precipitating a vicious cycle." What he implied is that Governments had a duty to outline a clear policy for the administrative service to implement. Change Agents cannot achieve their objectives without clear long term foreign and national policies,which have been missing over time.

"A Change Agent recognises the importance for positive action on the wellbeing of the economy,society and environment.They have the confidence and competence to live and work in a way that makes a positive and progressive impact."

It is the hope that all this change will not be in vain,if policy objectives are not clearly defined as proposed during the fragile and limited window of opportunity of the 100 Day Plan. Unlike,the purported authoritarian rule of the previous government,coalition partners in the National Unity Government rely on "elites" who can use the diversity as their strength,but simultaneously,this diversity of opinion and views, can be their inherent weakness on delivery of promises.

Perhaps,the most profound challenge for Change Agents in Sri Lanka is to strike a chord with the mood of the people for change and deliver this change in the most subtle ways possible.

Victor Cherubim

Testimonials of the Change Agents

Mention of a few names as comprising of Change Agents in Sri Lanka,could not do justice to the many who were involved in this process over years. They happen to be several dominant religious,civil,political,social and cultural individuals and organisations, that may come under this category.
We may recall the efforts of Ven.Maduluwawe Sobita Thero,chief incumbent of the Kotte Naga Vihara,who came out openly to canvass for a Common Candidate for change of the Executive Presidency. Besides, we have civil and public servants/administrators such as Mahinda Deshapriya,the Commissioner of Elections, Inspector General of Police,N.K.Illangakoon and their respective indomitable staff. the main Buddhist religious leaders,the Maha Sangha of Malwatte and Asgiriya Chapters, who by example brought about the change. Among the political parties, Past President,Mdme Chandrika Bandaranaike of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), we have the Jatika Hela Urumaya (JHU) laeders Ven. Omalpe Sobitha Thera,Ven. Athureliya Rathana Thera and Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka, who spearheaded the religious voice establishing a righteous state (dharmarajya) as
a solution to corruption. Of the United National Party (UNP) Ranil Wickremasinghe, current Prime
Minister, won the respect of the nation for his courage and forbearance  for over nearly 10 years in political wilderness,awaiting a peaceful transition of government. Jatika Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) Leader, Anura Dissanayake for being the people's conscience.Tamil National Alliance (TNA) Leader N.Sampanthan and Minister Rauf Hakeem Leader, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), for cooperating in bringing about reconciliation among the minority communities.
Perhaps,nothing would have changed without President Maithripala Sirisena,accepting to take on the challenge of leadership, as Common Candidate,together with the anguish of all people affected by state abuse, without fear,favour or fanfare.

Wearable Technology

Wearables

Not a day passes without some innovator producing a gadget,an app or a new device or process to meet  a"new market requirement." Innovation happens to be as much about high fashion,as high tech. 

Technological advance is about doing something different rather than doing the same thing better. The initial is WT -Wearable Technology. 

We will soon hear about Apple Watch or "AW", which will be brought out to the market to reinvigorate the iPod / iPad sales.Whether it will command the sales in its first production or later,it is here to stay.

According to CISCO research,there will be half a billion "wearable devices"in use around the world by 2019,including smart watches,fitness trackers,sensors in track shoes,smart clothing and other technological devices "worn close to the body,on the body,or even in the body."

Body Art

We have all seen the body tattoos,"henna drawings," the studs piercings all over the body, as fashion accessories. The latest is birth marks which have a fascination in "body art."

Wearables are now among the latest in "Body Art," and why not?


Invasion of privacy

Wearable Technology has according to critics, been developed for a special purpose, more than its special effect. It is to collect data,information to track
your time,distance,pace,calories via a sensor. Its evolution is not about the gadget on the wrist or any part of the body, but what is done with the data that it collects, or rather what can be done with that data. Could we soon see data overload,like the DNA data collected by Ancestry and Heritage sites?

Sooner rather than later,insurance cover for accident and life cover, will attract favourable or heavy premiums,dependent on the analysis of this private and confidential information, which up to now was available in the medical domain.

Sooner rather than later, guidelines may become normal for the amount of sleep that children,teens should get and for older folk,as monitoring of sleep patterns will provide health data. Sleep deprivation and insomnia are most common sleep disorders, but the real underlying problem can be illness, often mental,or substance addition,like coffee or medication.

Sooner rather than later,like the utility in having email and internet browsing on call on the person,on the move, there will be added personal monitoring of the home,one's health,one's bank balance, one's shopping habits,one's holiday's,as well as a variety of other chores.

Embedded Mobile Connections   

Wearables will have embedded mobile connections,but most will channel their data through smart phones. According to some sources by 2019 more than 69% of the world's population, will be mobile user.

The spew or the spitting of data is all claimed to be in the name of advancement, perhaps, in comparison to earlier mobile devices for sound and music integration. First,there was the MP3 Player,with music integrated to the player and then the player became integrated into our smart phones.

What has become obsolete?

With each new market innovation, technology perhaps,in the recent past,has tried hard to replicate the five senses of Man. It had its advantage in alleviating disability and health disorder. But unlike the past, when Man had the choice of accepting or refusing technological advancement, Wearable Technology is claimed to be a different phenomenon.

Wearables will be a constant interaction between computer and user. Like our wristwatch,there is no need to turn devices on and off. It is always "on", carrying on multi-tasking, without stopping what you are doing or performing. It could be a boon or a nightmare for the user, but what about its use?

Programmed Living 

Wearables from "Google Glass" to "Apple Watch" are experiments in programmed living. They may no doubt promise the best use of our time and energy. They may promise the best of modern technology. They hope to get technology to do the things that we want to do whilst keeping our "hands free" and avoid the need to stare down at the screen all the time. In this respect they may help prevent "repetitive movement syndrome", or nerve muscle strain. 

Wearables do not even need a conventional screen to be useful. Bracelets like those from "Fitbit" or "Jawbone" communicate with you, through vibrations whilst storing information for you to access by plugging the device into a computer later at leisure. This is a boon for those trying to improve their fitness or to keep their finances in shape.

Remote Control 

"Technology will evolve to enable us to stay in control of not only our lives, our health, our living space remotely: we can now record programmes using services like "Sky Plus," switch our heating on and off from our mobile with solutions like "Hive," "Nest" or "Control 4" and turn lights on and off with the "Hue" pack from Phillips. 

What is next in line or what already is in the pipeline, is when someone manages to package all these different technologies into one simple solution.

The Munich Wearable Technology Conference 2015 which ended in the first days of February 2015, is undecided whether Man actually regains control of "remote control."

Victor Cherubim