Debate on the Referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union

"Don't play the person,play the ball"

The EU Referendum is scheduled for 23 June 2016. Quite naturally,there is much debate on both sides of the argument to stay in or out of Europe.

There are those who say that Prime Minister Cameron has done the whole of Europe an invaluable service by forcing the European Union to forgo a "political union," seen by some as the grand delusion of Germany's European policy. 

Who says it will stop Poland or Hungary organising their own Referendum at some later date?

Who says that the French, the major partner with Germany are themselves fully satisfied with Europe?

The state of public opinion from France to Finland,mainstream politicians are eyeing the rise of nationalism and Euro scepticism. Unlike UK no one wants to leave Europe. It appears to be an electorate frustrated with high unemployment and faltering economy recovery. 

For the French, they are satisfied there has been no "treaty change, no veto for the UK on strengthening the Euro zone and no questioning of the principle of free movement".

For Cameron, he's got the drama that he apparently needed for the domestic stage.Whether that will pay off in the referendum is anyone's guess.

But as one of David Cameron's Cabinet Ministers, Iain Duncan Smith, a long standing Euro skeptic and a member of the "Leave Campaign" has aptly stated: "Don't play the person,play the ball".

He appears to be wanting both options, not to upset either Cameron and lose his Cabinet post after the referendum or lose his right to express frankly his conviction that it would be in the interest of the nation to leave Europe.

This is not only the dichotomy of Iain Duncan Smith, or of the entire Conservative Party but perhaps, of the whole of United Kingdom?   

  

Financial Health of Global Banks

Banks teetering again?

As 2016 began with a global sell off in stocks and oil, banks have come into limelight. The international financial system is once again in crisis and the banking system is facing the possibility of collapse, just as it did in 2008,according to Peter Osborne (no relation of the Chancellor) of the Daily Mail.

Japan's banks have lost more than a third of their value this year,while European banks are said to be down around 30% and UK banks somewhere in the region of 25%. 

What does this mean to the economies of the developed world.? 

Recent stock market sell off can be construed in two ways. It is either a financial catastrophe,or an epic buying opportunity? 

When markets fall and banks teeter,other financial assets are enjoying strong gains. Gold appears to become the best performing investment. After having fallen for the last four years from its peak above $1800, gold is coming to its own at $1200 an ounce recently.

Markets have become jittery as investors worry about a litany of issues from China's economic slowdown to the plunge in oil prices, banks' finances,and potential recession in emerging markets.

Role of banks

The health of banks are at the forefront of investor concern. 

The vital step of ordering banks to split apart their investment and retail arms, was called after 2008 crisis by the Bank of England.  

From 2019, Britain's biggest high street banks, that is those with more than £25 billion deposits have to run their retail banking operations as independent banks,almost entirely separate from their investment banking and overseas operations. 

The regulating bodies, however, did also request banks to have reserves for any eventuality.This has enabled banks to build up large sums in capital holdings as buffer for economic security.This has put a damper on lending.

Banks capital and bank's liquidity position are concepts that are central to the understanding what banks do, the risks they take and how best those risks should be mitigated.

It can be misleading to think of capital set aside by banks as an asset.It is a form of funding to absorb losses that could, if unchecked,threaten solvency.

In this regard, the Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England was given legal powers and responsibilities to identify and take action to reduce risk to the financial system as a whole. 

Other safeguards on banks

There is a cap on bonuses to bankers' senior staff. However,this cap is not hurting as average salaries have jumped from £364,000 in 2013 to £702,000 in 2014. 

Further, competition among high street banks in UK was encouraged.Challenger banks were floated.Noteworthy among them was Metro Bank which was to be a user friendly,all hours open bank. TSB was weaned off Lloyds Bank which cut itself off from investment banking and concentrated on private banking operations.

Over banking

The claim was made that these initiatives would create over banking with the public being not too enthusiastic about using banking facilities.Every attempt was made to discourage the use of private banking for some unknown reason. The Government put a damper on encouraging bank deposits,by only guaranteeing £75,000 instead of the earlier £85,000.

Banks on their own too curtailed operations and retrenched staff in large numbers.They discouraged the use of Bank deposit safes' service. 

Besides, low overall cash inflows, with disappointing sets of financial results,plus hefty legal bills, have dragged banks profits down, below expectations. Litigation provision almost four times the level markets had expected and priced in, were seen in some French big banks, in recent days.

The last  Governor of the Bank of England (2003-2013), Mervyn King, now Lord King now states:"only a fundamental rethink of how we as a society organise our system of money and banking will prevent a repetition of the case that we experienced in 2008".

Investor confidence 

Investor confidence is at an all time low. But investor appetite will no doubt return. after correction in markets, Confidence will grow as banks " right size" either investment banking or take other measures.

Equity or debt? What is the most effective way to fund confidence? Taking any business to its next stage can be daunting. It requires confidence,capability and capital.

While ECB, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve plots a round of economic stimulus measures,Banks on their own will want to be in the business of lending,which they know best. 

Early stage companies are less likely to be able to find loans,as they do not have the necessary track record as bank lending to companies with relatively stable cash flows.

Slowly, but surely, as banks start to lend again,confidence will be regained.  

Meeting an Antarctic Explorer

Tim Jarvis,an Antarctic Explorer, Author,chasing Shackleton adventures

It is one thing to read a book of the expedition to the Antarctic, it is quite another experience listening in person, a few feet away from the podium, at Stanford's  Travel Writers Festival,Olympia 7 February 2016, to a man who had come back alive to recreate both the exciting and trivial aspects of his expedition, the journey and back to Antarctica, where day seems like night and night seems like day.

I was enthralled by his narrative for over 48 minutes,his passion for environmental issues, the challenges he and his crew of five rugged sailors faced on recreating the original 1916 journey of Sir Ernest Shackleton to the polar reaches of Antarctica.

Tim Jarvis

Tim Jarvis born in Australia in 1966, a six foot five inch, sturdy built, charismatic explorer, a veteran of multiple polar expeditions, gave a packed audience his personal experience of this expedition in February/ March 2013.

His expedition was under the patronage of Shackleton's granddaughter,The Hon. Alexandra Shackleton, whose name his small sailing boat carried. He said it,was an achievement in sailing 1500 kilometres across the Southern Ocean from Elephant Island,Antarctica to the Trading Post at South Georgia.In waves as high as five metres, his boat capsized on one occasion.It was the coldest climate on earth, with frost bite and sea sickness all the way.

Whilst there, he said, he and his team could witness climate change in Antarctica. Some of the glaciers recorded in Shackleton's reports have now disappeared during his visit some 100 years later and other than that the spray and smell of the rugged mountains,the landscape remained the same.

His Books

Two well known books, "Chasing Shackleton," and "Shackleton's Epic: The Greatest Journey of Survival," are memoirs by Tim Jarvis published writings  by Harper Collins and Wm.Morrow & Co.The books retrace the legendary expedition of Sir Ernest Shackleton in 1916 and how he was stranded on Elephant Island, Antarctica after the loss of his ship "Endurance" and his adventure in his small rowing lifeboat "James Caird" through 800 miles of roughest seas and mountain peaks to South Georgia island.

The DVD "Death or Glory" also by Tim Jarvis is a picture tale of this adventure.

His Team 

His team,he said, consisted of five sailors besides. Each had a special expertise to tackle this arduous expedition. The combined effort of his team was to return alive.

Ed Wardle,41 years lives in London, was the expedition's cameraman.He had worked for Channel 4 TV and Discovery Channel and was an experienced high altitude mountaineer and Arctic explorer. His expertise was both with his camera as well as climbing the high mountains on the Antarctic coasts.

Paul Larsen,42 years,Australia born,lives in Weymouth,Dorset.He is an offshore sailor with 7 world records in sailing.His talents were necessary not only sailing but also when the crew was sea sick and needed attention.

Skipper Nick Bubb,33 years lives in Lymington, Hants. He is a professional offshore sailor,an accomplished around the world yachtsman,a sea survival engineer as well as Maritime Radio Operator. He was necessary for rescue operations when boat capsized

Barry Gray ,35 years, of Plymouth,Devon, is a Royal Marine and a Mountain Leader..He has extensive experience climbing and mountaineering in South Georgia.

Seb Couthard,30 years of Bewdley, Worcs,works for Lynx Helicopters, a branch of Fleet Air Arm.

The Mission

To the general public, the mission was an adventure of sorts. But it was a scientific adventure.It was not only drama to witness the majesty of the Antarctica,the towering mountains, icebergs,to record the landscape,the leopard seals,the porpoising penguins,to explore world's last greatest of wilderness on planet earth, but also study climate change as they share the achievements of Shackleton's leadership and story of the "Endurance" expedition,some 100 years earlier. 

Comment

Tim Jarvis through his books and DVD combines drama of the contemporary adventure with challenging reactions,a story of human survival.

He relates how humans react and deal with and survive extreme cold.The body will divert blood flow as the temperature drops so the most important parts stay warm the longest.This keeps the blood in the rest of the body from becoming cold.When blood flow is gone from the extremities for too long,the cells die.Depending on the severity of the damage,new cells will either replace the old or part of the body is lost to frostbite and battle scars like blisters and swollen feet. 

He stated he lost 32 kilos in body weight, surviving on lard. He let us into a secret that he and his crew were able to enjoy shots of Whyte & Macay Scotch whisky, courtesy of this blender. 

He was able to regain his weight in three later months. 

Behavioural adaptations such as wearing appropriate clothing similar to the clothing of Shackleton's crew.Survival requires two simultaneous events, food generating sufficient body heat by burning appropriate food,in this case,lard and secondly, preventing loss of heat by suitable body clothing.

Normal human body core temperature is 37 degrees C.Below normal temperature at 36 degrees C,the body starts to shiver and by 35 degrees the cold feeling is very intense,the skin feels numb and appear blue/green as a result of diminished blood flow. A common symptom of this is the effect on urine production.The body's response to cold is to reduce the fluid volume by getting rid of some water via urine.

Sea sickness is another reaction of the body's balancing mechanism.

The greatest achievement of his expedition was to recreate Shackleton's voyage of discovery and to return back with all his crewmen intact. 

Another's Attempt

Henry Worsley,55, a former Army Officer from London,had to abandon his history making attempt to be the first adventurer to cross the Antarctic alone on ski's. He had lost 50 lbs during his mission and reflected his despair that he would come to terms with stopping 30 miles short of the finishing line.

He was airlifted to a Chilean hospital in Punta Arenas suffering exhaustion and dehydration and died after succumbing to infection 71 days into his 950 mile charity trek on 24 January 2016.

No words can describe the sadness of this loss.

The Antarctic is both a challenge and an adventure and has claimed the lives of many, including Sir Ernest Shackleton and now Henry Worsley, a close friend of Tim Jarvis.

   

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