Lives and livelihood

The UK is now on track for a £400 billion deficit in 2020-2021 thanks to the unexpected expenditure after COVID-19. 

We are informed the Government borrowed £35.9 billion in August 2020 to contain this deficit.

We are also told it is the highest amount borrowed in the month of August since records began in 1993.

The UK debt has hit £ 2.24 trillion surpassing the £ 2 trillion mark for the first time in history.

Does anyone bother? 

Some day this debt has to be settled, but does anyone bother now?                                              

The size of debt,rather the surge in debt has been brought about in the past by the recession in 2008/9 as the UK suffered a big crash in GDP lasting for six successive quarters and hurt the Government's tax haul. 

But in 2020 no body can blame household borrowing as the main cause. This eye watering  figure of £2.24 trillion means every person in the UK is on the hook to pay it back,in taxes and other ways the Government will want to reclaim,as a result of the Government's own decision to "lockdown" the economy in March 23,2020. 

Economic soverignty v Geographical soverignty

 What are we striving for economic sovereignty, or geographical sovereignty?

With a second wave of Coronavirus expected to last up to April 2021, governments around the world have been advised to move hard and fast. What happens when governments move hard and fast has become well known to some, if not many of their citizens, especially during this pandemic.

There is confusion, there is denial of liberty, there is no accountability.  

Some say people all over are losing trust in politics. Citizens may have legitimate reasons not to trust “politics” or rather is it the “politicians” given what we have seen of their performance over the last few months. But can you judge a book by its cover?

Others say one of the principal causes of distrust in politics is the likelihood of poor leadership, which has moved power over our affairs to others, not to our national governments but rather to supranational bodies and especially to financial markets, as many argue?

What really has happened?

On the one hand, perhaps, we are becoming more suspicious of authority generally. In the past, we accepted the dictates of governments as final. We never, hardly questioned authority. After the changing whims and fancies of governments over the recent months of COVID-19 restrictions, with rules and regulations, arbitrarily taken, later changed without consent of Parliament, perhaps for our own good, there appears to be a cycle of distrust, strangely in democratic countries with autocratic majorities in Parliament.

The media has recently also run stories about the veracity of decisions of politicians with different motives, agendas, when these decisions are not in the public interest. Some decisions are not based on principles of ethics, or agreed policies, but on expediency, whilst others are ruled in for self-interest.  This makes it more difficult to build a positive relationship between ordinary working people and decision makers?

There are some others who say that policies stay the same no matter who is “voted in to power”. This is partly due to all politicians being tarred with the same brush as overpromising “the moon and the stars,” to get elected, and under delivering or sometimes becoming dictatorial to show they are able to deliver, when they have a hell’s chance with the accompaniment of burden of debt. It is better to come clean with the ordinary citizen who cannot be hoodwinked for ever.

One must remember that it is all to easy to saddle an incoming government with an unenviable task of solving eons of mismanagement of debt. This is known to the public as “passing the baton”.

Are we losing economic sovereignty for geographical sovereignty? 

Sovereignty is the most important, if not sacred feature which differentiates the State from other associations in the land? If the State has no sovereign power, the State cannot maintain unity and integration in the land. Thus, it cannot be ignored that sovereignty is an essential ingredient for a state to be called or identified as a State, in both internal and external matters.

A State can only be independent if it enjoys sovereignty. People of a sovereign state may become disillusioned over time if this sovereign power resides elsewhere.

For this to never to occur, it is not important whether sovereign power in a Constitution resides solidly and solely in a President or in a Parliament. The People of a State are the custodians of sovereign power as in the Democratic People’s Republic of Sri Lanka.

For this to be perceived by the people of the State as well as recognised by the world of nation States, the priority is to prove both to its own people and to the world that it has the capacity first and foremost to honour its obligations and commitments.

Sovereignty and Sustainability

Conditions imposed by IMF and international creditors usually focus on problematic and generally unfruitful policy strategies such as:

1.    Export oriented growth

2.    Liberalisation of FDI

3.    Promotion really over-promotion of tourism

4.    Privatisation of State owned enterprises (SOE)

5.    Liberalisation of financial markets.

Each of these strategies is a trap disguised as an economic solution. We in Sri Lanka must be and are fully aware of it.                        

                                                       

Geographical sovereignty may focus on the land, distances, and infrastructure not in relation to jurisdiction or authority, but in relation to geographical threats and strengths.

Economic sovereignty, on the other hand, is the right of a State to be free of economic forces of interference that would challenge, disrupt or remove the rights and freedoms of that State to exist and to govern its own territory without being bound by unbearable external debt and be able to manage its own economy.

Of course, we recognise when economic sovereignty is lost, geographical sovereignty is not worth the paper it is written on, or worth talking about, with one qualification, of the State’s international obligations.

Victor Cherubim

 

A new chapter in the Brexit jigsaw

 Brexit jigsaw

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Internal Market Bill has cleared its first hurdle by 340 votes to 263, a majority of 77 in the House of Commons last evening 14 September 2020.

Five former Prime Ministers and 10 former Tory ministers are thought to back the idea of giving Parliament a final say on any overrides to the Withdrawal Agreement signed with the European Union.

But with a commanding majority in the House of Commons, Boris Johnson has hinted that the whip could be removed if the rebels don’t back down.

The Key moments that have led to this Brexit saga

Brexit as many know is not just a storm in a teacup. It has had a long history. We all have known that this has been brewing for years, if not for decades. The defining moments in its history can be summed up as follows:

1.    The Maastricht Treaty or The Treaty on European Union of 7 February 1992 entered operation on 1 November 1993, was signed by the then Prime Minister, John Major, obtaining concessions to placate his rebels.

2.    The Black Wednesday,16 September 1992, saw Britain’s departure from the Fixed Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System. It had important consequences. The British Government was forced to withdraw the Pound Sterling from the ERM, after a failed attempt to keep the Pound above the lower currency exchange limit mandated by the ERM.

3.    The Lisbon Treaty of December 2007 signed on 13 December 2007 entered into force on 1 December 2009. It amended the Maastricht Treaty and the Treaty of Rome, called Treaty Establishing the European Community. It was thus not a new Constitution. But, Gordon Brown, the Labour Prime Minister surrenders Britain’s sovereignty, according to the Conservative rebels.

4.    On 1 February 2009, the European Debt crisis begins, first with the world realising that Greece could default on its debt. In three years, it escaladed into the potential for sovereign debt defaults from Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain.

The fear was a two-tier Europe with preferential treaties for euro members.

5.    In February 2016, David Cameron’s EU Reform deal fails, leading the way for Britain to vote Leave Europe on 23 June 2016.

6.    The rest is history, when Boris Johnson is voted in December 2019 with an overwhelming majority to negotiate a New Deal with Europe and leave on 31 December 2020 – Deal or No Deal.

Let me say with all humility that each of the above episodes have been witnessed by me during my long stay in Britain. I may recount this saga, more like pages and chapters in my understanding of the Brits and their way of life. I may even go on to state that unlike other nations, the Brits never give up. It is all because their lives are enshrouded in history. They unlike in Sri Lanka, do not have a written Constitution. Time is not a defined commodity, nor is history.  

A whole new Brexit Battle

The whole saga is a high risk, high stakes game between Britain and Europe. Of course, the reality is not just the border issue of Northern Ireland, Britain, Ireland, and Europe. There is more to it than meets the eye. The controversial proposal to change the law as an “insurance” to ensure goods can move easily between the UK’s 4 Nation States, is one part of the argument. The other unexpressed part of this negotiation is the fact that there is a lot more wrong with the Withdrawal Agreement than the Border Issue of Northern Ireland.                     

                                    

What about the Trade Deal with the EU?

Deals with the European Union are known to be, “not a done deal” until the last minute.

Deals with the European Union are also known to be done not “by negotiation” but by “a meeting of minds” of Heads of State.

Will it be expediency rather than argument, that will resolve the issue of trade, is a matter of conjecture?

Victor Cherubim 

Brexit is back

      

High Risk, High stakes ahead Quote of the day ‘A breach of contract does not itself entail a breach of the rule of law, and breaching a treaty obligation because parliament has so legislated does not either.’ David Wolfson QC on whether the Internal Market Bill breaks the law. However, Boris Johnson's plan to override key elements of the Brexit deal will "undermine" international trust in Britain,the European Commission has warned.  Britain’s relationship with the EU has been plunged into crisis after ministers rejected a demand by Brussels to drop plans to override key elements of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. At a stormy meeting in London, European Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic gave the UK until the end of the month to drop the controversial provisions in the Internal Market Bill or face the potential collapse of talks on a free trade agreement. However, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove – who co-chairs a joint committee on the Withdrawal Agreement with Mr Sefcovic – said the Government was not prepared to back down. “I explained to vice president Sefcovic that we could not and would not do that,” he told reporters following the meeting. Meanwhile, a spokesman for EU's Chief Brexit negotiator,Michel Barnier said in London that the talks would not be suspended amid the row.

Upskilling skills

 Upskilling skills in all walks of life

The talk of the town is upskilling your workforce to meet tomorrow. Whether it be doctors, bankers, or even the Police force.

The start of the recession might also be the final straw in a long line of difficulties this year has ushered in for individuals. We are going through tough challenges, in fact compounded challenges. It is not just one thing for a lot of people, it’s a snowball effect.

We are seeing the impact of people unable with coping methods. We see the threshold of tolerance, excessive drinking, excessive binge eating at home. We hear of a five-fold increase in calls for all forms of help since end of March 2020.

We also know that the world of work has changed beyond recognition. Job roles, working patterns, working styles and even business strategies all continuing to change rapidly and continuously, as such businesses face one of the biggest challenges of our time, keeping people’s skills in sync with the volatility of work.

Upskilling is considered by some as one answer. Firms which invest in advancing upskilling strategies convey a message, create a higher employee engagement, do a better job of attracting and retraining talent. Some of them are accelerating digital transformation, are innovating faster and react to new market opportunities much faster.                                             

How can you identify future work skills?

Let us suppose your business needs to focus on say “brand strategy,” that in itself becomes a critical skill.

Of course, the skills identified will vary from business to business, service to service, by role and career aspiration.

But employees who are excited in learning new skills, are sure to build a stronger company culture as well as remain in the company and useful to the company longer.

There are ways to find this out. First, you need to assess the skills, establish a minimum standard of current skills and capabilities, then focus on the future skills you have identified as critical to create a dynamic talent strategy. 

Of course, we cannot predict the future. But we have some tools to do just that. For this assessment you need a Skills Inventory, Skills Ratings, Skills Progression, Skills Gaps.

The trick is in an Upskilling strategy which will impart business priorities and a Plan of Action and setting targets.

What is the need of the hour, what do we need next month, next year, next three years or the next decade? With this baseline, many firms now plan to help determine how the business will go about the future skills it needs to fill the gaps.

It is also realistic as employees will only be able to focus on gaining a couple of skills at any one time.

How do people learn new skills?

We are told people learn best when multiple learning methods are blended. Some of these multiple learning technics are as follows:

1.    Online and self-directed method. Perhaps, it is a trial and error method, seeking to learn through self-taught classes, articles, podcasts, webinars, etc.

2.    Team based learning, given by the company.

3.    Peer to Peer learning, where employees seek help and advice from their co-workers to learn.

4.    On the Job-development, a clear case of this is “Stretch Assignments”.

One Example is how the British Police, is going about in my opinion filling skill gaps, all the time coping with its duty and its tight budget.

The days are gone when the Bobby was wearing a hard helmet hat with a baton on the side of his belt and walking the beat. Today, the ride the fast-moving vehicles and officers are called to perform more than one duty.

Today’s world is not only knife crime, but psychology and coping with, the pandemic.

Work is not just about money, it is about a sense of purpose, identity, and structure to life.

Security forces are having to cope with medical anxiety, the impending recession. The looming possibility of losing a job, having to live a hand to mouth existence, of what little one has, will have its own psychological impact.

Police in Britain are being trained not to put handcuffs and fill police cells. They are in the frontline of how to handle this crisis and particularly how to resolve issues, perhaps, without Court intervention. Courts are not in full session; lawyers are in hibernation.

But the law must carry on regardless?

The easing of lockdown will not address any, if not many, of the underlying issues.

The worst is yet to come, say not only pessimists, but also pragmatists.

There is going to be more Brexit madness. The European Union Parliament has drawn a “red line” on letting talks push past end October 2020.

Boris Johnson, in the true Churchillian spirit has also drawn up legislation that will override the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement on Northern Ireland, a move that threatens the collapse of the crunch talks, which the Prime Minister said must be completed by October 15,2020, or Britain will walk away for good.

Staying inside the EU is now a dream, “coronavirus or no Coronavirus”? There is no appetite to revisit the Brexit issue.

The bird has flown out of the cage. A new skillset is in the making in Britain?

Victor Cherubim 

Serial incompetence or a justifiable excuse after COVID-19

Among the plethora of agonies, men and women have had to endure during a span of six months for a hundred or more years, thanks to the pandemic, is a suffocating incompetence in many walks of life.

The UK Opposition Leader, Keir Stammer summed it very well by accusing the government of Boris Johnson of “serial incompetence”. The Labour leader said the PM had been “lurching from crisis to crisis, U-turn to U-turn, excuse to excuse, when he should have been preparing the country for a possible winter” of perhaps, discontent.

We’ve had the exams crisis which raised questions about the ability of getting a grip on difficult decisions, or even run the country in a crisis. The great pandemic has led to an extraordinary expansion of incompetence, as well as “power grab”.

First, it was lockdown designed to buy time, so that the health service could prepare. Next it was to “flatten the curve,” then it was “follow the science” on face masks and social distancing, then it was “closing borders” with an effect on slowing the spread of the virus.

COVID-19 gave not only the British Government, but governments around the world the world the “perfect excuse” to monitor citizen’s movements through their mobiles, but the “test, trace and track “programmes which wanted to suck up, rather mop-up private data and store it centrally. This we are told was abandoned when Apple refused to participate. We are then informed that “poking swabs into the nostrils” or taking swab tests from people’s larynges without consent, will soon be replaced with “saliva tests”.

Big Government and inefficient private service

It is understandable that those who protest these draconian measures in the name of national safety, are quickly shouted down.

It is intolerable when people who are said to work at home give the latest excuse for their inefficient service, that they have not got their facts straight. Their excuse is an apology to customers having to wait, as much as one hour on the phone, to be fobbed off that they have not got the correct information. Complaints procedure takes weeks, if not months to resolve.

In the name of defeating Coronavirus, and we are told it’s all temporary, but is it?

Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government programme, as the measures taken by governments seem unthinkable; have been implemented in haste without debate.

In every country, Big Government is here to stay, or as many governments proclaim, “here to help”.

In Sri Lanka, we see almost all important Government positions controlled or lead by retired members of the forces. I have nothing against retired people being at the helm of key departments. I am not in favour either of incompetent managers being put in charge of national security. I would only hope that these retired officers will be given understudy younger personnel in much greater numbers, so that the knowledge, experience, skills, and training will be imparted to much needed juniors. We lack skilled personnel in our key jobs. We need to give the youth of today something to learn from our elders. This is an emergency, which I consider needs to be addressed sooner than later. But who am I, living in the comfort of western insalubrious climate, to comment?

My own experience in UK

I do hope my readers will understand when I relate what the resultant situation has caused, notwithstanding the serial incompetence seen in many other walks of life for others, in the past few weeks.

To give you an example of the incompetence, the medical negligence that I have experienced. I thought I had twisted my ankle some three weeks ago. I had a swollen ankle, which caused me a lot of pain. I visited one of the leading University of London A & E Departments in the City. I was seen by a Consultant who told me to rest my leg, without a backup Xray, he sent me home and referred me to my GP.

Due to the pandemic GP surgeries are not automatically available “on call”. During a Virtual Conference arranged with my GP, I found to my dismay that it had to be abandoned due to the absence of a “Java” programme uninstalled on my mobile.

With my anxious wait, I was seen by a GP in person in surgery days later. Having examined my ankle, he prescribed me an Antibiotic. This did me no good as I had to be taken to a nearby A&E and be attended by a Fracture Consultant who ordered a series of “X rays” and decided to put my right leg in a “moon boot,” ordering me to rest for 6 weeks and asked not to doze myself with any antibiotic.

Blame everything on the pandemic

Sadly, the pandemic had completely exposed “serial inadequacies,” improper planning and lack of competence and capacity within not only institutions of government, but also in medicine and business. They may have been waiting in the wings.

However, some of the panic and reaction over the virus is well founded as it is a unique crisis and there is understandable confusion over how governments ought to respond. But at the same time, vigilance and resilience is required.

Victor Cherubim