Our Collective Economic Problem

These are epoch changing times not only in Britain, but for many island nations and their leaders around the world, understandably due to COVID-19.

It is becoming apparent that massive government spending is the only way out of the current crisis. From the current global economic meltdown supply side economics has outlived its purpose and it is now time to go for a new way of growth that revolves around making everyone wealthy instead of a select few.   

Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is a man who is the envy of many, not because Boris is Boris, but because of his courage with all the pile of worries, which he has had to hurdle over this year. He manages to bounce back, with every episode, which lesser mortals would have succumbed.

There have been Cummings and goings recently. With Brexit still unresolved and the nation jittery, anyone else would have not have the nerve to self-isolate and work from home with video conferencing Parliamentary PMQ’s and attend to other matters of State.  He has had accusations of being too hard on the Scots, too soft on Northern Ireland and ungrudgingly mean with sticking points in Brexit negotiations – fishing rights and State Aid and the governance of any Brexit deal for a path to an agreement with the EU over Trade.

 He has a lot of unhappy Tory MPs at the moment each of them disgruntled about a combination of problems. He has had the Labour Opposition throwing gauntlets, with nothing sticking, as to how he will manage the lockdown at Christmas. He has promised the majority of new MP’s of Northern England of his huge spending plans of infrastructure development. Add to all this, we read of today’s announcement about military spending. He has announced a £16.5 billion, four-year defence modernisation programme.

For years, defence spending has been a running sore in the Tory party, with his  backbenches endlessly fearful that failure to boost the budget have led to Britain declining as a world power and the armed forces feeling increasingly forgotten.

He stated today “I have decided that the era of cutting our defence budget must end, and it ends now”.

Everyone in the United Kingdom is aghast at how he is going to find the funding for all his promises given to the electorate at the last General Election, let alone COVID support.

Boris has a will, and he has a way?

When he was Mayor of London, he wanted a Sky Walk Bridge over the Thames and though it was utopian in the extreme, he got it done.

He wanted United Kingdom to leave European Union and on 31 January 2020 he got the necessary mandate at the General Election, to move forward to reclaim and take back control of “our money, our laws and our borders” to begin a new chapter in UK history.

Today, the only -quite big - problem is that the higher the defence spend, the greater the challenge facing the Tories, who always were known as the party cutting government debt as its priority.

The modernisation package includes money for a “shipbuilding renaissance”, a new cyber force, a RAF Space Command launching satellites and a Centre of Artificial Intelligence – a very ambitious programme of infrastructure development among other things. 

What have we in Sri Lanka as far as our Budget 2021?

We in Sri Lanka want to solve our problems in a matter of four years of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa first term of office in 2024. Many commentators, including W.A.Wijewardena, a former Deputy Governor of our Central Bank writes in the Daily FT that “we have to work harder, two or three times harder than before, to take our country out of the present economic malaise. That is the only source of progress. Without that, the Budget 2021 will only be another document with no practical relevance.”

Regaining what has been lost over decades cannot be magically redeemed in a matter of years. Of course, we Sri Lankans do not have a penchant for austerity, for savings, or as stated, “for tightening the belt”, as if there is no other solution available now?   

It does seem economic problems as the writer states, are macroeconomic. With all good in the world, we cannot “flog a dead horse”. We cannot ask our people to suffer for the misgivings of the past. The man in the street has borne our follies of the past with dignity and patience. Can we blame ordinary people for the corruption? Can you lay the blame on our farmers for poor harvests? Can you blame our working class for our position in the world today and our accumulated burden?

The acute foreign debt problem

This was caused not by the people who were living a hand to mouth existence. The poor management of our debt by officials and advisors of previous governments is perhaps, one cause for our plight today.

It is foolhardy to think of solutions to our problems today, without looking at our present predicament on our lack of initiative, our lack of prior capital investment and our wanting and waiting for solutions to our problem within time frames which are unrealistic.

“When the going gets tough, the tough get going”. Let us think of our finances as many countries in the world plan theirs. Let us think of our financial woes of our country today not as burdens, but as challenges to be overcome. Let us think of what we have gained by the accumulated debt and salvage it by planning over a 30-year period.

It is like preparation as a sport, or as a competition. Start tackling what we must do as if it is just another part of the game, with an ultimate goal line further down the road. No prizes for expecting miracles. Planning, more planning and more creative planning is the answer that has made achievement possible for other nations and we too can benefit.

Victor Cherubim 

          11.11 Shopping Carnival in China, a moment of silence in UK

        Everyone knows about the buying spree on Boxing Day,26 December            each year, but how many have heard of the shopping bonanza in                  China on November 11, 2020. 

        Since 11.11.2009,Alibaba the Chinese e-commerce giant decided to                do a major promotion with 27 brands in China that day, it is now an              annual big event and is called "Singles Day".

        Looked up by many,as an event in the Chinese calendar as the                      Chinese New Year,not even Alibaba can imagine how far this                        marketing initiative has grown. 

        Singles Day is celebrated both in China and around China Towns                  around many parts of the world. Like Black Friday in the US and                  Boxing Day in the Commonwealth,it is an extravaganza of nationwide            bargain hunting with a big difference. All shopping generally is done            online.

       

       According to reports,Chinese consumers spent well over $100 billion         during this year during Singles Day Shopping  Festival as China                   recovers from the pandemic and the slowdown of the economy.

       We are also told that today the eyes of shoppers are on quality                   products from around the world like French chocolates and                         wine,South Korean beauty products, Russian pastries,New Zealand             dairy products and German cutlery. 

       Beside the whole world brought to the doorstep of the Chinese                     consumer,we are also informed that this year 2020,some 350 million         delivery orders attracted food and grocery purchases from                       restaurants and pharmacies,all done with only a "click" on a                       consumer's smartphone. Mobile payment structures are also in                 operation simply by scanning the "QR code". Talk about a new mode of         commerce, this is it,in China today.

       What else was seen during the bonanza, Chinese households could               order special deliveries of milk from Beijing and yogurt from Xinjiang         in Western China. 

       But, most of all delivery costs rarely exceeded a few pounds,                       sometimes at no charge at all.

                    Does this mean that there is more and more competition in the                            market or more and more regulation of the market?

       We are also told that there is regulation, the latest addition is                     "rational consumption". There is none what we saw in London                      supermarkets during the early days of "Lockdown," with shelves               "cleaned" of toilet rolls among other essentials.Perhaps, there is no            need for panic buying

        Like in the UK where shoppers are able to collect points for shopping          purchases at Sainsbury's, or with a Tesco's Club Card, or with credit          cards, where their credit score is monitored by Credit Rating                    agencies, the difference in China is that all shoppers are given a                rating for "good citizenship".This is a bonus point for many,and handy          for job applications,promotions and special facilities.

        Diversity and differentiation is the value added bonus,perhaps,for              being not only a prudent shopper, but being a member of the Party?

        What does 11.11 mean other than in China?

        We in the UK and in the Commonwealth, have a special significance.              Besides, often associated with spiritual awakening, it is the moment            of silence observed on memorial Day since the end of the First World          War. It is Remembrance of the members of their armed forces who            died in the line of duty. It is the time when hostilities formally ended.            It is the exact time in UK when at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the              11th month,when the Armistice became effective. When the Big Ben                strikes 11.00 am on 11 November,everything comes to a standstill for            a minute of silence. This is a tradition that will endure the strands of          time.

        Victor Cherubim

Virtual Travel

Travel is on our mind right now, especially trips to distant lands. But if physical travel is out of the question right now, we will just have to satisfy your wanderlust in a more creative fashion. Pick up a novel set in an exotic location. Stream a documentary about one of our must-see spots. Get the ingredients and prepare a dish from our favourite dish or country. 

You don't have to invest a lot of time or money to give yourself an escape.

"Late at night when my body is asleep,

my mind seems to travel through time,

I never know who I will see,
Or if the people I meet, have a message for me.

As I travel in the land of no time,
thousands of years, pass through my mind,
faces with smiles, and eye's full of tears,

one thing in common, year after year"  by Tom Maxwell.

Why escape? 

We always used to think, travel was about going places. But after Coronavirus pandemic we have come to accept that we can easily travel to any destination through conversation via either Zoom or Skype, with someone,somewhere in the globe with prior consent and preparation.

The thing that never came to mind before, was that we could travel through our life stories,our experiences,our joys and our sorrows and we may be able to experience a world through words, without actually being there!

This travel is as powerful,if not more so,than physically packing our bags,getting on a plane and travelling the world. This is not for the affordable few, but accessible to anyone and everyone alike. No worries of passports,visas,health conditions,hotel or tour bookings,or even, dietary requirements. Of course,no special travel foreign exchange or  budget needed. 

You show up on Zoom after making the prior web/email connection at a allotted time for your visitor and yourself and be ready to share each of your stories as you dive into a conversation that matters,to you and your overseas visitor,another human being,in another far flung land, with a different time zone and perhaps, a different dialect.

Naturally, you need to have access to other similar "explorers".

Perhaps, the first topic of conversation, discussion would be how they are coping with the isolation during their "lockdown" or their quarantine.

You may have wanted to go for Christmas in Bondi Beach,near Sydney but instead could now connect with someone another part of  Australia.  He or she may have been laid off,another victim of COVID-19. They may have a story to tell you that say, they could stay afloat for a maximum of 6 months without support on their savings to live their usual lifestyle,but were really worried what they would do after that. They may relate how they were careless with their hard earned saving for a deposit for a home. They may relate with trepidation how the pandemic had now made them "super careful", in fact extremely frugal and worried. 

It may well be a raw human, authentic conversation into a painful moment that millions are going through all around the world. 

Our walls, and their tales

 For well around thirty minutes our quarantine walls in both our destinations were ripped down and we may be able to connect with people we have never known, seen or heard of in advance of your Zoom connection. They or we may be utter strangers in the different corners of the globe, whether it be San Francisco, Osaka,or nearer home in Frankfurt,Germany.

What  can you talk about with strangers?

With the Presidential election in the US,your conversation may well meander about American politics, or an opening introduction of an easy topic of conversation exchange about the local weather.

We might be able with permission, to obtain a unique insight and perspective connecting with their school going children laid off at home,from our imaginary world tour of Osaka,Japan. Perhaps, we may have researched that they are fans of the child band "Paprika".

Like all children, they would be delighted to hear from us, with our British accent, about how we celebrated "Halloween" or Guy Fawkes night, whether children in UK were able to go "trick or treat" and whether we had the usual "bonfire" at our homes?

In our last imaginary tour, we land in Frankfurt,Germany. The topic of conversation is the vaccine which was tried and tested at the Pfizer lab in UK. They may want to know the views of whether commands popular support for widespread distribution in early December?

The parents in Germany may be more interested in talking about what each of them had in common and what made life different for them at this time?

Meeting such diverse people with various backgrounds and ideas on a virtual world tour sitting in our chair at our home will be an innovative way to inspire us and expand our perspective of the topics we pre-planned to talk about.

In an odd way, it may resemble something we may have pursued in our childhood days of having "Pen Pals" around the world with similar interests,like stamp collecting, or sports fans, who would exchange correspondence with us. 

Of course, most of what we could view on our Virtual Tour of the World in 30 minutes,or more, is to chat to a few selected strangers. Our discussions, our conversations may circle back and forth on how we are all coping with life in the current pandemic. 

How we are able to distance ourselves from our social circles of friends and work mates to socially isolate during this pandemic, is only the tip of the iceberg? 

In our virtual world tour of countries and their peoples,we are able to visit these places and gather some perspective, without  literally getting there.It is truly exciting to connect in this mode of travel to feel the unity in diversity of the human race.

Victor Cherubim 

The America I knew and now

I was a student in America in 1957 during the time of President Dwight D. Eisenhower and later President John F. Kennedy. The first was a Republican and the second a Democrat. The first a decorated General, the second a Senator. I consider this period as a milestone of change, more than of approach. 

Many may recall of the time of Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles, of “Reds under the bed,” and later during the Kennedy Administration, a breath of the “New Frontier,” the dawn of Space exploration, the Peace Corps and the Cuban Missile Crisis, among others. 

Wherever I visited in the U.S, I was introduced as a student from where the tea comes from. I qualified it by stating, I am a product of Ceylon, the other products are tea, rubber, and coconut. I loved travel and I was lucky to visit many states during my stay. 

I remember very well, President Kennedy’s mesmeric words; “Ask not what the country can do for you, but what you can do for the country”. The ripple of his message reached many a shore, with a bubble of enthusiasm and a wave of challenge, around the world. 

After leaving America enroute to my homeland, I had the opportunity of visiting many of the capitals of Europe and particularly each of the capital cities in the far flung U.S.S.R, in March 1962, an experience with lingering memories! 

I could sense that I left a different America, to the one I had come to know. This was reflected in the untimely assassination of President Kennedy, by Lee Harvey Oswald, 24, a disenchanted, white veteran marine soldier, in Dallas, Texas on 22 November 1963. 

What is America today? 

If you fast forward today, we see a not too different America in some ways. Yet, in many other ways we have a vivid and varied contrast. Today, after some 63 years later, I find a new era America, with the election of a new President, a Democrat, who was 7 years old in 1963. We have a Senator of Irish ancestry, Joe Biden, another lanky American, another liberal thinker. 

Yet there ends the similarity, or the correlation, euphoria mingled with relief. 

Perhaps, Biden, is the last politician to oust an elected President. Before that it was Bill Clinton. He defeated George W. Bush, Snr. in 1992, with a bit of help from a third-party candidate, Ross Perot. 

What follows as day follows night, was the cycle of slump followed by boom. With the election of President Clinton it was the long boom of the 1990’s. During this time, unemployment came down, the Stock Market/Wall Street soared. U.S. Tech companies were at the forefront, this became the Second New Frontier of the Digital Revolution, a Budget deficit was turned into a surplus. 

We are near a similar situation today, perhaps, not quite. This may be due to an unforeseen pandemic. President Donald Trump’s, so called disastrous last year, means he is on course to be the first occupant of the White House, since the World War II, (some 100 odd years later) to preside over a net loss of jobs. 

Besides, the pandemic has caused a health catastrophe as President Trump has seen the economy shrink and more than 240,000 Americans die of Covid-19. 

History may record his time as President, as an era of tweet, sign talk, misinformation and “fake news” and manipulation, and a period of division and attributed to him? 

Where the similarity ends? 

Biden inherits a likely gridlock Congress impacting ideas of a stimulus package that can boost consumer confidence or spending in 2021. Some analysts state, it will not be the President of the United States, but the Chairman, Federal Reserve Bank, Jerome Powell, who will lead the economy out of this quagmire. 

Why does America change colours every so many years? 

“Wars begin in the minds of men, it’s in the mind of men that defences of peace have to be constructed.” 

When I was in America, it was after the Korean War, when I left America, it was during the Vietnam War. 

These cycles of international conflict had repercussions on the lives of ordinary American citizens. The GI’ effect was one, the anger in the minds of many was another, the Peace Movement and Marches, were still another. 

All in all, the cost of the wars abroad had come home to roost. 

Today, one thing the Presidential election has shown is that America has nearly become, “The “Divided States of United States”. There are millions of angry, discontented people, among them the poor, both at heart and in spirit, mostly from White communities, who seem unconvinced by Biden. They were prepared to give Donald Trump a second chance, despite his record. Besides, a great many Black and ethnic minorities like the Hispanics who did not vote for Biden, but voted tactically, many for and some against Trump. 

America today is a different country, it will take a lot of persuasion, agonising patience, and continued perseverance on the part of both President Elect Joe Biden and Vice President Elect, Kamala Harris, to turn the mindset of America around. The two issues, I believe, which will be uppermost in the mind of President Biden are:

1.Inequality of opportunity.

2.Rough injustice.

If anything, President Biden may have learned from JFK diplomacy and tact. He has used these traits before as Vice President. There is nothing stopping him now to use them again to fight the long fight, to unite the nation.

Victor Cherubim