The low turn out at the French Presidential Election 2022

 

President Emmanuel Macron faces 12 other rivals this weekend (Sunday 10 April, 2022) as polls open for the first round of the 2022 French Presidential election. 

This will determine the country’s political framework for another 5 years. 

In the case of Macron, the Left think, “He’s on the right; “the Right think, “He’s on the left”.

But, what Macron was in 2017, and what he is now has changed. Some of his sheen has worn off French voters, particularly since his negotiations with President Putin for a peace deal in the Ukraine war. He is still the forerunner but in the last week, in a diminished position compared to 2017, the youthful, unknown candidate with charisma. 

Macron’s race to win a second term in office has been less glamourous. He started his campaign late.  He has also done little campaigning compared to his rivals. He has been wanting to focus on showing himself as “being a peace-maker” in Ukraine, even trying hard to get to speak to President Putin, while. Putin had other interests? 

                                                                        

The First Round of this race is taking place on Sunday 10 April, with the two top candidates, going “head to head” on 24 April 2022, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote.

 Marine Le Pen’s campaign trail 

Would you believe, Marine Le Pen, the ultra-Far Right, National Rally Party candidate, is contesting at her third attempt at the Presidential race? She has narrowly taken the lead in the polls? This is according to the latest poll from Atlas Politico, a Brazilian pollster. But according to other pollsters, the election, it is too tight to call? 

Marine Le Pen has been visiting a lot of small towns and villages around France, drawing in crowds. Perhaps, proximity to voters is a very important in French Presidential elections? 

                                                             

Why don’t French Presidents’ get re-elected? 

Some say, French Presidents rarely get re-elected. Presidents in office are at a disadvantage.

The French perhaps, seem to change power every five years, to keep their Presidents in check?

France has had 8 Presidents since 1958, the beginning of the Fifth Republic. Only 3 of them managed to win re-election for a second term.

Three Presidents, Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand, and Jacques Chirac, were elected to second terms. Two presidents, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, and Nicolas Sarkozy, were defeated in the second round. Sarkozy aimed to be a candidate again in 2016, but was defeated in his party's primary. There are also Presidents like Francois Hollande, who end up terrible in poll ratings, which they don’t even try for a second term. 

Eric Zemmour - the political outsider 

Eric Zemmour has a far right following with his denunciation of “Muslims, Black People and almost anyone from an immigrant background.” He self-proclaims, he is the disciple of Charles de Gaulle. He states,”it is no longer the time to reform France, but to save it.” Strangely, his support has dwindled since the invasion of Ukraine. He says, “He is the only one who can take on and defeat Macron.” But being a political outsider, people are wanting “to rely on the known candidate who they can trust,” to defeat Macron. 

To add to his challenge, Marion Marechal, Marine Le Pen’s niece, has defected from her Aunt’s National Party (NR Party) to join, Eric Zemmour’s “Reconquete Party”. 

Jean-Luc Melenchon and the Far Left

Far Left candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon ran in 2017.He complains, in fact warns,that Macron and Le Pen, have a lot in common, particularly on the economic front. None of them want price freeze; none of them want retirement at 60. 

Key issues at the Presidential Election

The key issues of concern for the 2022 Presidential election are:

1.    Security, a serious concern in Europe..

2.    Cost of Living.

3.    War in Ukraine and immigration.

4.    Health Care.

5.    Wages. 

This election according to observers, is too close to call. 

This is especially as most Presidential Elections over recent times in France, are decided on the second round of voting. 

We are told Marine Le Pen, is open to admit Leftists, if she wins the Presidency. She has been canvassing the Working Class vote vigorously? While President Macron is too much with those in the Middle Class, but a classic disadvantage, many voters view him as arrogant?  Melenchon is wanting at best, to get on to the second round of the race? 

Thus a Marine Le Pen win is not impossible. But, Macron has a slight edge, we are now told? There seems to be a lower turnout than the contest in 2017. We need to wait and see what happens on 24 April 2022? According to early results the two contending candidates are Macron and Marine.

 Victor Cherubim                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

 

 

Demand Destruction after Ukraine War

What was Putin's goal?

The Russian leader's initial aim was to overrun Ukraine and depose its government, ending for good its desire to join the Western defensive alliance Nato. But he failed to capture the capital Kyiv and has now shifted his ambitions to Ukraine's east and south.

Launching the invasion on 24 February he told the Russian people his goal was to "demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine", to protect people subjected to what he called eight years of bullying and genocide by Ukraine's government. "It is not our plan to occupy the Ukrainian territory. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force," he insisted.

This was not even a war or invasion, he claimed, merely the fiction of a "special military operation" that Russian state-controlled media are required to adopt.

The claims of Nazis and genocide in Ukraine were completely unfounded, but it was clear Russia saw this as a pivotal moment. "Russia's future and its future place in the world are at stake," said foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke of freeing Ukraine from oppression, while Ukraine's democratically elected President Volodymyr Zelensky said "the enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two".

Russia invaded from the north, through Belarus, as well as from the south and east, but Ukraine's fierce resistance has caused heavy losses and forced the Kremlin to drop its plan to oust the government.

When Vladimir Putin shattered the peace in Europe by unleashing war on a democracy of 44 million people, his justification was that modern, Western-leaning Ukraine was a constant threat and Russia could not feel "safe, develop and exist".

But after thousands of deaths in ruined towns and cities and the displacement of more than 10 million people inside Ukraine and beyond, the questions remain: what is his aim and how will this war end?