The new world order we see today, is it real or an illusion?

Are we are living in a moment in which the  Big Powers are finding it harder to subdue smaller, weaker adversaries and win wars? Russia expected the war in Ukraine to last 48 hours. President Trump banked on Venezuela-style regime change in Iran.

Neither of those strategies has worked out, why not we may naturally ask?

What comes next?

The next question is whether this U.S.-brokered pause can keep Iran engaged long enough for talks to resume in a more stable way. Axios reported that Israeli and Lebanese diplomats were still due to meet in Washington, suggesting Washington wants to turn a narrow tactical pause into a broader de-escalation effort.

For now, Trump’s move showed he does not want Netanyahu’s Lebanon strategy to derail his Iran diplomacy. But as long as attacks continue in southern Lebanon, the risk remains that the Beirut crisis could flare again and pull the negotiations down with it.

Now Israel is finding that its war in Lebanon, far from dealing a definitive blow to the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, might be strengthening its resolve. Today  just as in Ukraine and Iran, drones have proved to be a headache for the country with the overwhelming military power — and what that means for Hezbollah, for Iran now?

Iran has prepared itself for years, perhaps long decades, not to be a world power, to compete with the likes of United States or China nor Russia. It's history has withstood wars and hardship, but has prided in a reputed centuries' old civilisation. With a harsh climate, with mountains in defence, in  a natural reserve of unlimited oil, it has wanted to continue as survive in 

geography, but regional power. It has wanted to exist among hostile neighbours, in a terrain which it sees its existence as a threat to other powers, wanting its destruction.

The narrow, but strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, between adjoining land locked nations, to add to his geographical surrounding,Iran's history has  hardly been anything but tranquil since the overthrow and exile of the Shah Pallavi of Persia and the set up of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979.   

Victor Cherubim