Wednesday 22 April 2015

Election Fatigue in Britain

Voter tolerance

Have the political parties lost their tags or has fatigue set in after five weeks of electioneering?

It could be a bit of both according to some political commentators. Saturation point has yet to be reached,but having read the Party Manifestos,seen TV debates of seven party leaders and "pressed the flesh" with handshakes of both,the party leaders and the candidates around almost as many of the 650 constituencies around UK,there appears to be a growing feeling of "overkill" of the election message.

The voter in Britain according to opinion polls,is finding that "Ed Miliband,the Labour Party Leader, not as bad as he was." He is exceeding expectations". 

David Cameron, is promising "the moon and the stars" invoking the Thatcher spirit with "Right to Buy" Housing Association homes for the public, the  public sale of shares in Lloyds Bank,and the donning of Punjabi headgear,all in the name of voter relations. He too is undoubtedly exceeding all expectations,but perhaps,in the other direction. 

The voter is no fool, to assess all these modalities.They seem to grasp in one breath the Tories pledge to cut immigration and simultaneously wanting to pander to the immigrant worker, which according to the UKIP is not credible.

Britain has always been a nation of moderates, of shared values and fair play.At this election it seems "anything goes, everything is up for grabs and negotiable."

Issues  
   
1. Housing

Let us take housing and the housing crisis in UK,a prime issue at this election. The "Right to Buy" rented houses, is a double whammy, a dual disadvantage. It is said it could worsen the acute housing crisis by transfer of social and charitable assets of Housing Associations, to a select few wealthy and lucky individuals, as well as making it unaffordable for the majority of hardworking people.But who said: the Tories are a party of hard working people? It sounds fine to own one's rented house, but as Labour has emphasised, and many will agree, that the sale of highrise,antiquated Council houses, by Thatcher government in the 1980's, was a dream turned into a nightmare, as the first house traded twenty times the original purchase price?

2. Share sale

Let's take the share privatisation of the Thatcher era and the replication by sale of the State owned,Lloyds Bank.The taxpayer bailed out the bank after the banking crisis in 2009. Now the taxpayer will not benefit by the discounted "privatisation" at a future share sale of the bank. This according to Labour: "is giving with one hand and taking away with the other".

3. Care of the Elderly

Let's take the social service Health Care plan. We see the most glaring and hideous expansion of the NHS proclaimed by the Conservatives, which believe it or not, is seen in the "dumping of the Elderly in Care Factories" around the country. Labour party maintain that the number of over 85's is expected to grow from 1.65 million in 2015 to 2.84 million by 2030. Some 425,000 care beds have been made available in factory style in large house conversions into "Care Warehouses". This is a shameful experience for Britain which Labour say they will bring back consideration and care of the elderly in UK.

The Manifesto oversell

Labour accuses the Conservatives of "oversell." in their Manifesto. The Conservatives accuse Labour of being "bedfellows" with the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) jeopardising national security at a future coalition. The Liberal Democrats in their manifesto want to rewrite the education fees fiasco of the last Coalition. 

The voter has got news for all the parties. Election fatigue can manifest in one of two ways:
Voter turnout v Voter belief that their vote matters. Unlike in Australia,Belgium and Chile (ABC countries) where voting is compulsory,in Britain only 35% of all those eligible to vote, did cast their vote at the last election in 2010. In Sri Lanka, at the recent Presidential election, voters were lining up outside polling stations from early morning to cast their vote. Was it voter contentment or was it an indicator of voter political engagement?

Options and Outcome

One in ten MPs in the next House of Commons will be new and different, replacing 77 of the current MPs standing down.To bring in an ethnic flavour, two Sri Lankans are standing for election. Ranil Jayawardena, a young Tory Deputy Leader of Basingstoke Council, is contesting the North East Hampshire seat, whilst  Ms,Uma Kumaran, a Labour candidate is standing for the Harrow seat while there are other ethnic minorities seeking both election and re-election to parliament.

The prediction is it would take three parties to form a coalition. 
 If no single party could form a sustainable government, we could be in for a second election. 
 If none of the two main parties could afford to raise money in such a short time, we could well 
expect markets to get jittery and the fragile recovery could well be threatened.
Ed Miliband has to overcome voter doubts about Labour's economic competence,to form a
solely Labour Government with a majority. 
But, if David Cameron's Tories will be the largest party in the Commons,Labour could still 
 form a Minority Government, with support for the Queens Speech from other parties and 
 continue in government on a vote on issue by issue basis.


Victor Cherubim 
     


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