Monday, 19 August 2019

Doing what needs to be done in Sri Lanka?


 Doing what needs to be done in Sri Lanka?

We have every one talking about the forthcoming Presidential election in Sri Lanka.

We have also everyone talking about what has not been done in Sri Lanka.

What then is what needs to be done and is still not done?


If then, what needs to be done is what people need, why is it not done?

Why is it that the people who have been in power for decades not been able to do,what needs to be done?

Is it because people in government have not the capacity to do what needs to be done?

Is it because our elected representatives have lost the will to do what needs to be done?

Is it because they have not got the "Mind Set" or the "A" levels to do the job that they have been entrusted by the people of Sri Lanka?

Is it because they are expecting someone else to carry out the job they promised the people of the country that they would do and failed to do?

There is a job to be done in Sri Lanka 

It has to be done now, not tomorrow ? Why?

There is no denying of the sovereign power the people of Sri Lanka wield among the constitutions of nations around the world.Supreme power of the State rests not with a President or an elected Prime Minister, but with the people.This power can be exercised at the next Presidential election in December 2019.

Will the people of Sri Lanka use this discretion to radically change the political scene in Sri Lanka at the next Presidential vote? 

Will they seek the accountability of the future President by electing a person outside the main political parties?  Could it be a three corned battle for power by the over 90,000 people attending the JVP rally at Galle Face Green on 18 August 2019?
                                                

 Many Sri Lankans understand that making the country more competitive in the global economy  is an absolute necessity.It may be easier said than done, but nonetheless has to be delivered?

The majority of ordinary Sri Lankans fear increased competition, especially the unfair advantage of the private sector from abroad and the limited skill sets in the country. You need innovation to compete, If you do not possess the skills needed for innovation you cannot compete. 

Sri Lanka has had a brain drain for nearly fifty years. Talent and skills have migrated abroad. They have voted with their feet and gone abroad. You have to bring back those who have sold their skills abroad and give them incentives to return back.

 If you cannot remedy the skills shortage in Sri Lanka, you can never compete in the world of today, says the World Bank?

Knowledge Share
We know that attracting skills is not easy.

Britain was in a similar situation before joining the European Union, There was a justifiable fear that migrant labour from the Continent would displace the local population.Equally there was a desperate demand from Europe's skilled labour, like Doctors,Nurses, IT Technicians,Builders, Carpenters, and specialist manual workers, wanting eagerly to come to Britain to share their knowledge base as well as to learn English and the British way of life.They were happy to work in Britain and happy to repatriate their funds to their homelands in Europe. Now after over 40 years, Britain understandably wants to restrict free movement of people from the Continent.

Sri Lanka needs an Open Door Policy to attract not necessarily foreign labour, but migrant Sri Lankans to return to Sri Lanka, to rebuild their motherland, giving them all forms of inducements, say Overseas Investment opportunities,Citizenship Rights, Voting Rights,other tax incentives, to name a few?.

Capacity Building


First, Sri Lanka needs to seek growth opportunities and foreign investment from beyond its borders.

"We have seen no country today has been able to create opportunities for its people entirely within its own geographical boundaries.To succeed in this open environment,Sri Lanka will need to implement its skills base,better understand the supply chain as well as produce higher quality goods and services,"

We are told Sri Lanka attracts less foreign investment  than other comparable economies.Further,only a small proportion of these investments generate diversified exports. 

We need to know what to build on, what to improve, what to leave alone and what to ignore.

We need to identify the unmet needs of our people,not the wants which our politicians think our people desire? 

Victor Cherubim



Friday, 9 August 2019

Global Economy Slowdown

Global Economy Slowdown

The British Pound has hit a two year low. It has shrunk to its lowest level against the dollar and also gone down against the Euro.

Speculation over an early snap poll is rife. Budgets planning with forward public spending are being rushed through during the Parliamentary recess, to prepare as soon as possible,for a General Election,the day after Britain exits the EU on 31 October 2019, or 84 days from now. 

This is not my prediction,but what the papers say?

Research at Bank of England have long asserted that the UK economic growth will remain modest. Its modest Canadian born Governor, Mark Carney has been asked to stay on temporarily when his terms ends soon. Perhaps,a Canadian hand is better than an English hand it seems to calm the jitters?

The UK projected growth rate is at 1.4 % in 2019 and estimated at 1.3 in 2020. As compared with its long term trend rate of around 2%, is also the Customer Price Inflation rate which can trigger the Bank rate.

Plans ahead of Brexit  

With  a"no deal" stockpiling of goods, a spate of betting shop closures, bank staff redundancies, a very real recession seems looming?

Prime Minister, Boris Johnson is all up-smart,upmarket,upbeat - the typically Etonian, true blue, "stiff upper lip".

Of course,he has repeatedly refused to rule out an early election?

Who wouldn't in his position with a so called "majority of one" in Parliament's HoC?

But, if you ask me, it is all posturing?

He has the polls and the public also upbeat

"You Gov" poll stated the attraction of a snap election due to his tough stance on Brexit, has paid an early dividend. But we need to wait for the postman?

Boris is to inject £1.8 billion into the NHS as part of his pledge to upgrade 20 hospitals across UK, even though experts have warned that the money may not be enough for the promised upgrades. However,the money is to be made available immediately. 

Nobody knows where the money will come from, but that is Boris' "feel good factor" to end Theresa May's austerity.

What is happening in China?

With all the unrest in Hong Kong, China is also having a re-think in the slow down of its growth.
China's economic growth is expected to slow down to 6.2% - a near 30 year low according to a new Reuters poll.

Rising trade tensions with the US have pushed the Chinese government to step in with its economic stimulus efforts in an attempt to boost growth.

President Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports in May 2019.

China is not sitting pretty on its back, waiting for the world to deliver?

During this week on  August 7,2019, a falling Yuan helped China mitigate,if not entirely offset the US tariffs by making its exports cheaper?

Chinese currency reached its lowest level in more than a decade going lower than 7 Yuan to the Dollar.                                     
                                         

This move was claimed as retaliatory, but it came as a response to President Trump's surprise announcement on August 1,2019, that he would impose a 10% tariff on $300 billion  in additional tariffs, on Chinese imports starting on September 1,2019.

Tit for tat, the US Treasury Department stated,it considered China to be a "currency manipulator". 

China is not looking for what US does?

It is already making an effort to replace foreign imports with domestic production. The more things get ratcheted, the more China can accommodate, as it's population will be made to work, not that they now sit on their laurels?

Economic Impact on the United States  

"While manufacturing is not the economy, it plays a huge role in the business cycle of its volatility."

Cut backs in household spending on durable goods, is the cause of any downturn?

The United States has the might of its power. 

The Federal Reserve will keep on cutting interest rates, thanks again to the Trade War? 

Stock prices and commodity prices are all down sharply, not over the year, but over the past week in the U.S. 

The slowing down in China and Europe, the dwindling impact of fiscal stimulus, manufacturing weakness all pose risks to the US economy. This is all the more reason to keep lowering interest rates, many say? Others look to next year's Presidential Election?

How about India?

In the past week, if not days, India too is in the hot spot. The annexation of Kashmir and Jammu is not without reason?

"When America sneezes, India gets a cold,." was told to me by my teacher at Aquinas, Prof. Srinivasan 64 years ago.

I realise this more now, than then. There appears to be a hidden agenda in the West to mitigate its problems and lay the blame on the East? 

Narendra Modi's India, is growing faster than China. The rate of growth is over 7 %.                     
                                              
It seems natural to scratch its neighbour, Pakistan, to show its military strength?

The sages, the soothsayers, the pundits will tell you different? 

It has nothing to do with India or with Modi, it has everything to do with the position of the constellations, of the planet,Uranus, which is having its effect from Deep Space on  Earth?

How true?

Small wonder our politicians in  Sri Lanka, run to Andhra to get the protection of the Gods and they return home cleansed?

Can we, a small island appease the Gods?

Victor Cherubim

Saturday, 3 August 2019

Astroturfing

AstroTurf ? Is it a type of Grass?

Astroturf is not a special  type of grass used on a cricket pitch,perhaps, as one could guess?

It could also not be a surface on a racecourse,which some horses fancy?

It  has no relation to the what the Astronauts saw when they landed on the Moon 50 years ago?

The word refers to a communication technique where "political campaigners attempt to create the perception of an upswell of grassroots support for a cause." 

It is not dissimilar to the illusion in the odd one out in the puzzle below.
                                          
What happens next?

If, Astroturf is a novel way, the practice of creating the appearance of grassroots support for a position by hiring lobbyists to promote that position?

Or if it is establishing ostensibly independent advocacy group(s) or even citizen groups  that are primarily conceived,created, connived and/or funded by politicians,industry or public relations to project an image?

Or if it is the future of lobbying, what happens next/

The reality of astroturf is  likely to be a "combination of constant identity verification,with control oscillating between vindicators and vigilantes."

It is the computational propaganda which is the attempt to manipulate public opinion through automation and algorithmic systems to spread "political junk."

Recent use of this technique?

This technique is sophisticated that recently an online paper, "Colombo Telegraph"  dateline  1 August 2019, by " Arundathie Sangakkara," compiled a lengthy piece entitled:"I will vote for JVP"at the next Presidential election in Sri Lanka, with all purported authenticity.

The funny part of it is that Anura Kumara Dissanayake  or ADK, -the JVP Leader in Sri Lanka, as he was referred to in the article, was projected as "humane" whilst the image of the JVP of old was " defined to us in our upper class world" as "inhumane" for their butchery in the 1980's.

The so named author hardly elaborates who was responsible for the carnage?

Blind leading the blind?

The paradox is that the online post elicited 99 comments from named and unnamed responses, with many views ascribed contradictory to the author, such as "a vote for JVP is a wasted vote, it will strengthen the Rajapaksas,".or "The Pohottuwa is not stupid enough to count the Muslim vote." Besides,the public comments listed manipulates by hyperbole, "who cares who captains the sinking ship called, Sri Lanka."  

It clearly appears the author was a fictitious writer using the Sangakkara name to give credulity, attract attention of its readers. It also seems likely that fictitious comments were added to embellish the article.

It also clearly sounds that it is the masterpiece of one of the the two main contending parties for the Presidency, wanting to project an image that the public wants a political change, but by subliminal inference,the opposite is projected in the feeble minds of the public.

The goal of this method of "communication strategy" is to amplify or suppress political information, perhaps,through "lies and confusion and manufactured false consensus giving the illusion of popularity."

What then is astro-turf? 
                                                
                                           
Astro turf  is derived from a brand of synthetic carpeting designed to resemble natural grass, as a play on the word,"grass roots."

Will astroturf be the future of the "communication ecosystem," who knows?

You can fool the public some time,some of  the public all the time, but not all the public, all of the time.

Victor Cherubim

Thursday, 1 August 2019

Trends in England?

Trends of the times in England?

When we think of cutting edge technology we tend to expect "immediate satisfaction" from the knowledge, use or exploit of anything or everything that is the latest, the greatest or the newest, the day it comes out. 

It is sometimes, in contrast with "bleeding technology" which is so new that the technological device,technique or achievement, could have a high risk of being unreliable, not fully tested, lack of consensus,or the costs and benefits of application or use, needs justification or verification.It may be the state of the art innovation, but it could imply more scrutiny.

One thing that is in the news is identity recognition. We had finger prints,signature and  handwriting identification,blood samples,voice recognition, biometric iris scan and the latest and most recent is  facial recognition.

Maslow's Identity of Needs

Beyond the basic need for a sense of control, we are driven by our sense of identity, of who we are.As Descartes,the philosopher said : "I think,therefore,I am", or as Abraham Maslow,the psychologist defined as above, as "a hierarchy of needs".

We generally act either to support or  threaten our sense of identity?

Without delving into philosophy, psychology or sociological investigation, we can see what is happening before our very eyes. 

We see the cutting edge technology of "smart sockets" allows one to use the mobile phone to turn on their living quarters, their home, by among other things controlling their mood, their lights and appliances,from anywhere they are in the world.  

In England and perhaps elsewhere, we notice more and more Cutting Edge technology taking over "our God given freedoms". As a surveillance technique it is ubiquitous, but is still a political, legal and ethical conundrum.

Read what facial recognition can do? Can you see why it is a fad to have "selfies" taken? We must be naive to follow the crowd.

The latest news on "The Guardian" UK states:

"It is there on Facebook,tagging photos from class reunions, your cousin's wedding and the office summer party.Google, Microsoft, Apple and others have built it into "apps" to compile albums of people who hang out together. It verifies who you are at airports and is the latest biometric to unlock your mobile phone where facial recognition apps abound. Need to confirm your identity for a £1,000 bank transfer? Just look into the camera"

"New applications crop up all the time. Want to know who's at the door? A video doorbell with facial recognition will tell you, provided you've uploaded a photo of the person's face. Other systems are used to spot missing persons and catch slackers who lie about the hours they spend in the office. Advertisers, of course, are in on the act. Thanks to facial recognition, billboards can now serve up ads based on an estimate of your sex, age and mood."

My own experience

 If this sounds Big Brother, read on: my computer was flooding me with scam, of email pictures of young women wanting to meet me, wanting to have fun, wanting everything which they think I had under the sun.I kept on deleting it and the more I deleted it without opening, the more it came into my "In Box". They must be thinking that I have what they want? They hardly knew that 
I was "two years younger than Big Brother upstairs?."

Was it all? When they stopped pestering me, intimidating me,harassing me, I got spam emails from Late Nelson Mandela's widow or so the email said, that she did not know what to do with the millions bequeathed to her and wanted to share it with me?. I thought to myself, that I was a very lucky man, immediately deleted it without response. Is it difficult to guess,who is behind these antics?

What is the lesson?

Can you recognise why email addresses are often touted for every ad and why email addresses are sold like hot cakes?  Someone is making money out of all the various forms of identity verification? 

There is "iris scan recognition", which is an automated method of biometric identification. This innovation used mathematical pattern recognition techniques,even algorithms of video images of one or both of the irises of an individual's eyes,whose complex patterns are unique, stable and can be seen from some distance.It may also be called "retina scanning, which uses unique patterns on a person's retina blood vessels. There is also eye vetting verification that uses "scaleral views."

Can you now recognise why "make-up" or touch up has gone out of fashion? There are talent scouts for TV companies who seek people with blemishes. Human nature as it is looks out for imperfections. Disabled people are used to read out weather forecasts, perhaps as a distraction for mood manipulation? Charities print images of starving children to collect money?

Where's the ethics in today's living? 

Security equipment is a boon as well as a infringement on personal liberty.Personal liberty which is proclaimed from house tops, has become a sham?
 
Security is essential for living, but what use is it being put to for monetary consideration, for unscruplous business?

How can ordinary people take control of the environment in which they live? I don't mean the "climate change," but living secure without Big Brother monitoring not only life in their daylight hours but also sleep patterns? You may think all this is in the realm of possibilities?

Victor Cherubim