The issue of migration around Europe?

The issue of Migration around Europe?

People migrate for a variety of reasons, none more poignant than as economic migrants.

Whilst European leaders are battling stark divisions within the Bloc for an equitable distribution of migrants in the Mediterranean rim of nations, there appear to be fundamental issues blocking a “one size fits all” settlement of this problem.

The wave of populist sentiment across Europe is in the making. Equally refugees fleeing persecution need asylum. However, it does not automatically mean that countries have to give someone that protection in their own State, is being debated around Europe. 

What policies that suited Europe years ago such as the Schengen Border Code, the Dublin Resolution and perhaps, the European Fundamental Rights Charter, now seem to be outdated and represent a big hurdle to what can be reformed and how these reforms can be adopted by all the 28 European nations.

Whether we like it or not, the so called rich nations of Northern Europe, Germany and France in particular, and the so called “Sunshine States” of Southern Europe, like Italy and Greece, had “sheltered” an inherent dichotomy. The former did want cheap labour for their manufacturing industry; the latter could hardly sustain uncontrolled migration.   

Understandably Italy has long been overwhelmed with arrivals from the African continent, all claiming to be refugees, it is now standing alongside countries such as Austria, Hungary, Poland and perhaps others of the Old Soviet Bloc, who are pushing for tougher EU anti migration policies, on the wave of popular support.
                                      

The Dublin Resolution

Under the Dublin Resolution a request for asylum, should usually be presented in the “first European country of entry”. This regulation enabled EU countries to deport asylum seekers to the country where they first landed. The Dublin system has been identified as the big structural problem because it places an undue burden on countries of first entry. It can be argued that this is both a protection and a non protection for both refugee and host country?

EU Fundamental Rights Charter

The EU and its member states are obliged to comply with the principles of the rule of law and respect fundamental rights. These legal obligations were framed progressively by the case law of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). The Charter of Fundamental Rights draws on the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), the European Social Charter and the constitutional tradition common to all the EU member states and the Courts’ Case Law. This Charter is binding upon all the EU institutions as well as Member States. It is also a point of reference for the EU legislature.

During the period (2011-14) and prior to the hordes of migrants from Africa, Syria, Afghanistan, Myanmar and other nations, EU reformed its legislation on asylum in order to achieve its objective to establish a Common European Asylum System (CEAS).

The current refugee crisis has impeded further development of CEAS.

Schengen System of passport free travel

The Schengen system of passport free travel throughout Europe (not only EU) is also on the verge of collapse because of temporary border controls reinstated by a number of EU Member States.

Chancellor Merkel’s Proposal

As Bavaria’s Christian Social Union, a coalition partner threatened a renewed rebellion to bring down her 13 year rule to an end, as well as start turning away at the German border those registered for asylum elsewhere, Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will seek direct deals between countries to fix the migration crisis if the EU fails to agree a common policy. There were to be bilateral and trilateral agreements between the EU how to help each other than wait for all 28 members to agree. This can hardly be construed as EU policy?

However, it has been eased at least for the time being by the all night sitting of 28 members of EU Council on 28 June 2018. Reports state the EU has “stuck a deal”. After 9 hours of grinding negotiations they managed to paper over the yawning differences. The “Fortress Europe” agenda in Brussels according to reporters, after all, has put deterrence and the protection of EU borders at the forefront of its migration policy.

While all this was going on?

While all this was going on in Brussels, England lost to Belgium at the World Cup in Russia, but England got "an easier route to final."

Besides, due to the unusual heat wave producing temperatures over 30 degrees over a week in England, some roads have started to melt. Train tracks have reached a high of 49 degrees C (120.2F) and thousands are flocking to the sea coasts to enjoy the weather?

At long last England is also on the verge of a Brexit celebration of sorts. Both Britain and the Republic of Ireland are of a similar size, but Britain’s population is 66 million compared to Ireland’s population of 6 million. The cause for celebration is that Britain at long last is seeing a 43 percent drop in migrant workers coming from the European Union, a welcome sign to some, a worry for others?

Dip in numbers of EU migrant workers

The number of people entering the UK for work from Europe has dipped.Citizens of the A8 countries coming to work in Britain have decreased even with the assurances of free movement until 2020. There is disenchantment it seems with Britain after Brexit for European migrant workers? Significant numbers of EU nationals have also decided not to make Britain their home.

Many are remaining in their own countries to stabilise “Fortress Europe?” Others are finding it does not pay to come and work in Britain, with so many tight immigration rules coming into force since and possible  reprisals after Brexit. There is no more an automatic “free-be” in Britain either for health care, or for other amenities such as eligibility for Child Support Allowance for EU migrant workers’ children, already resident in their homes in Europe.

Rules for new EU migrants could include mandatory work permits,requirements to register on arrival and restrictions to access to benefits,which would not apply to EU citizens who moved to UK before Brexit, But the Home Secretary has recently clarified that EU citizens and their families who have been living in the UK for at least 5 years by the end of 2020 will be able to apply for "settled status" giving them right to remain and work in UK indefinitely.
                                       

The grass is not always green on the other side?

The Brexit dividend is here already. A year before Brexit, the Office of National Statistics has revealed that there is a slowdown in Britain’s population growth as well.

There is also a 32 percent drop in the number of migrants from outside the EU claiming jobs in UK. The closure of the “Calais Jungle” and the clandestine entry for economic migrants into Britain has been sealed, at least for the time being.

The ECHR ruling on Fundamental Human Rights will also not apply for asylum seekers in UK after Brexit.

All in all, migrants, whether job seekers or asylum seekers are in for a hard time in Britain after Brexit. This possibly could be one reason for the influx of migrants to Europe crossing the Mediterranean at present?

Victor Cherubim

President Trump Won vs Chairman Kim Jong un 2 ?

President Trump Won vs  Chairman Kim Jong un 2

The world is trying to understand what to expect of the momentous,historic meeting between President Donald Trump - United States and Chairman Kim Jong un of DPRK (North Korea) at Sentosa Island, Singapore on 12 June 2018.

Although this meeting was thought to have been arranged on the spur of the moment between two leaders,Chairman Kim,36 (unverified), half the age of President Trump 72; what really was well rehearsed was their unmistakeable chemistry. Both were capable to do deals to surprise everyone? Did we have to await this moment in history?

Everyone in fact in North Korea, we are told,have had to hold their breath to figure out what all this fuss was all about? Perhaps, it was another attempt by their leaders to sell the same horse again, or whether it was really to make a start to peace?  For starters too, no one in the US, did think this meeting would ever happen as suspense of the drama unfolded?

Undoubtedly, there had been decades of quiet diplomacy in preparation. The start of a new future was envisaged,but the outcome was and is, too early to predict.What is noticed now, is that the timing was just about right for a variety of reasons.

The replacement of the present Armistice regime signed at the end of the Korean War with a permanent peace treaty,had eluded many U.S.Presidents and UN officials.It is no conjecture, but that is what may happen at first?

Clause 3 of the agreed Statement issued at this Summit states "reaffirming the April 27,2018 Panmunjom Declaration between the two Korea's (by President Moon Jae of South Korea and  Chairman of the State Affairs Commission,Kim Jong un),  DPRK commits to couple denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula."         

                                        

History of the resolution

North and South Korea have remained separated and occupy almost the same territory they had when the war began,68 years ago on June 25,1950. At one stage North Korea had demolished South Korea, leaving only a small territory surrounding the city of Busan,in South Korea. This needed the world (UN) to come fight the Korean War.The Korean Armistice signed on July 27 1953 ended the uneasy truce.  

Containment and commitment and safeguarding peace in the Korean Peninsula has meant stationing 18,000 US troops in South Korea for these many years. President Trump stated that the remains of  some 6000 fallen US soldiers will be repatriated to the United States, thanks to his visit. 

It has been an unbearable cost for North Korea too,in defence of their territory. North Korea has suffered decades of economic stagnation,has been stigmatised as a "pariah state." It has suffered a major famine in 1990's. It's population of 25 million is half of it's neighbour,South Korea. It had also  to support a military of more than 1.2 million and a further 7.7 million in reserve,making it ground forces one of the biggest in the world. 

Six nations comprising the two Korea's,United States,Russia,China and Japan have had decades of negotiation to come to replace the present Armistice with a Peace Treaty to no avail. A new strategy had to be in place.
                                         

TCVID  denuclearisation

Total,complete,verifiable and irreversible denuclearisation has brought both the United States and North Korea together. In return Washington is to offer Pyongyang a guarantee on non-aggression,seen necessary for the continued stability of the North Korean regime.

Besides, the United States is hoped to stop its "war games" (military exercises) with South Korea,which was all along sought by North Korea.

Having proven to the world its nuclear and long range missile capability, North Korea and its weapons of mass destruction, had become a threat not only to its neighbours South Korea and Japan, but in November 2017 for mainland USA.

It was too costly for the United States to continue bringing it's deterrent,including long range missiles and bombers from  bases in Guam for the military exercises in South Korea. 

For North Korea, it is wanting to get economic stagnation removed. There can be no better assurance than from President Trump to clearly state during this visit that North Korea will be aided by Japan and South Korea in its economic development process. 

Challenges present 

The challenge posed by the United States to North Korea can be summed up: "It's not you, but about us,that matters to us now." 

Military compliance to any treaty agreement would present a challenge. As President Trump expressed confidence that the United States is able to assess according to its "heat seeking" capabilities to monitor North Korea and stated that once on the road to denuclearisation, there was no turning back by North Korea. 

The problem of total verification of nuclear capability,seen by some observers as a  blind expression of faith in the goodwill of the North Korean regime, is no longer considered in Washington as imponderable.This means they (US) already have verifiable evidence that North Korean nuclear programme has stumbled, for North Korea to destroy its missile launch sites and other strategic deterrents against its neighbours.

Russia and China have assured that the one-to-one meeting between North Korea and the United States is a step forward. For Russia, having North Korea to be economically developed, is very much like the Marshall Plan in Europe after WWII.For China,the fact that there may be a reduction on American Forces in its borders, is definitely a bonus. 

The magic of Kim   

Age before beauty. Kim played his trump card on Trump. He mesmerised Donald Trump by flattering him within the first few minutes of their summit meeting. He was well coached both by China and Russia and he followed their implicit instruction and he scored.

The mosaic of Trump

Trump was able to single out sanctions beyond comprehension and Kim was wobbling and his classic hand shake shook the daylights of Chairman Kim. Kim wanted to show his people he was not riding or trading a horse, but failure to reach any deal at this summit was a recipe for regime change in his nation. Kim wanted to show his people what his father and grandfather couldn't do, he could do, meet face to face with the President of the United States - talk in terms with the enemy, thus earning him a place in history.

It is the World Cup season. Trump won on penalties in Singapore. Trump was trumped in the States by the Federal Reserve which put up interest rates.

The world always sides with the vanquished.

Victor Cherubim 

China's First Friendship Medal

China's First Friendship Medal award to President Vladimir Putin 

The G7 World Nations is meeting at Quebec City,Canada, this weekend June 8-10,amid discontent among the G6 industrial nations with the attitude of the United States on Tariffs and Protection of Trade as well as Climate Change and Iran Nuclear Deal.

The Powers meeting are Canada, France,Germany,Italy,Japan,United Kingdom and United States, with observers from the European Union.

They were once the Great and the Good G8 nations meeting annually, then it became G7 with Russia removed after the annexation of Crimea, and perhaps it may end up being the G6 Powers,with United States abandoned, but not for now.

Quebec v Quingdao  

Another meeting, the Quingdao Summit - the 18th Meeting of the Councils of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Quingdao, a shipping port city in east coast China is also in session at the same time.

The SCO Eight regional nations meeting are China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan,Russia,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan, as well as four observer states and six dialogue partners.
                                                    

It appears this gathering of nations,though not Great Powers,controls 60 % of the global population.It has a much closer and pragmatic approach to understanding of the

shifting sands of politics and may end up being "the Great and the Good" of tomorrow's world.

Secret meeting on the sidelines

There is the rumour that a secret meeting,the third  between Chairman Kim Jong un and Chinese President Xi in recent weeks in 2018 and perhaps President Putin may take place in Quingdao on the sidelines of the SCO and in advance of the possible meeting between Kim Jong un and President Donald Trump in Singapore on 12 June 2018. 

China is a signatory of the 1953 Armistice Agreement and China's participation in the Korea/US Peace process may become mandatory for any future deal.

Bilateral relations between China and Russia

With the recent strained relations between the United States and Russia,those between Russia and China have reached an incredibly higher level of true strategic partnership, is not in doubt.Besides geopolitics,the Russian economy is under great strain facing European sanctions and United States antipathy. Chinese trade with the United States on the other hand, is "under a cloud" on tariffs on steel and aluminium.There is an uncertain relationship with Donald Trump's United States, which China accepts but does not understand.

The next chapter

Imagine the next 40 years, with no China-Russian conflict, which is highly probable. The milestone of security cooperation between Russia and China was carved out in the Good Neighbourly Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation signed nearly 17 years ago on 16 July 2001.

Geography favours China.The Pacific Ocean- the sea borders much of China. But China has 13 major railways to China-Russia border,while Russia has only one. 

History favours Russia.A land mass borders Russia. Russian military have more tanks,artillery and missiles than China land forces.

Chinese Navy is located in the Pacific Ocean, while Russian Navy overseas many areas. Gathering fleets together is much faster for China than for Russia,which is a logistic issue for Russia. But Russia has much more advantage and robust submarine force and a huge advantage if and when there is a nuclear war,since its missiles are much closer to Chinese major cities.                                           

Russia and China share a long land border, but the Russian side is sparsely populated with less than 2 million people and on the Chinese side, encounters many millions. Lots of Chinese settlers we are told are moving to Siberia and are bringing with them real prosperity. 

Political rapprochement and economic cooperation is already taking place between Russia and China in a number of other fields,energy,arms production,trade in currencies,strategic projects in transportation, including the Arctic Shipping route to Europe from the Pacific, as well as supporting infrastructure. 

In a strange sort of a way,this development is fostered by Western and NATO policies and actions of containment of Russia including sanctions related to Ukraine.Russia is surrounded in its borders by old fiends,now enemies,with Nato forces on alert. China luckily is surrounded by new friends and old enemies.

On the Chinese side - "One Belt,One Road" is projected as an alternative or supplement to the maritime route from the Far East to Europe reducing shipping times from 45 days to less than half this time. 

"China and Russia will both agree with ancient Sun Tzu, that the best battle is the one that is not fought,but won by economic cooperation."

China has always believed that economic integration has pragmatic implications. 

Russia has recently grown tired on it's large exposure to the West and is looking eastwards.

Both China and Russia are pushing to adjust to the new realities in search of alternative partnerships and trying to overcome their various economic and political differences for the sake of mutual interest.

Russia is strong in resources. Russia has energy,gas supplies which up to now have been diverted to the West, China desperately  needs energy supplies for its manufacturing industries. 

Trade however,has lagged behind. Despite an encouraging trend,the volume of trade between the two countries has suffered sharply

The new Chapter in China/Russia relations

In the world of today,in the name of friendship,alliances are being established. 

Reciprocity is the name of the game. Russian President,Vladimir Putin on November 4,2014 awarded the Russian Order of Friendship to Chen Ping, President of the National Grand Theatre in Beijing for his contribution to promoting Russia/China ties through cultural exchange and economic relations. 

Nearly four years later, in the name of good relations and mutual understanding,the Chinese have reciprocated.But it was precise timing and media attention that overtook the award of a new Friendship Award to Russia in return.

China's great appreciation to Russian President 

President Xi Jinping presenting the first Friendship Medal to his Russian  counterpart,Vladimir Putin at a ceremony in the Great Hall of the People, Beijing today 8 June 2018 is  not without particular significance. The Gold Chain and medal symbolises  long term friendship and unity of purpose. Bilateral ties have been raised to a higher level,with existing relations ratcheted up,perhaps, by expediency. 

The body language between both Presidents speak louder than words.Both Presidents are of the same age, both seem to be on a mission to turn round their respective nations. But President Xi''s welcoming address expressed his respect and admiration for Putin's contribution and efforts to build a peaceful world.
                                             

The Order of Friendship of China (youyi xunzhang) is exclusively reserved for foreigners and awarded to President Putin, at a time and at the choosing by the Chinese.

The Order of Friendship of Russia is not exclusively reserved. Russian and foreigners are eligible for this honour. The other difference is it is not dependent on signing any new alliances,military or otherwise,but can be awarded to anybody.

This indeed is the world of difference.

Victor Cherubim 

Britain's negotiating position on Customs Union

UK and EU are still to agree a Customs deal on how trade will operate after Brexit.

The Customs Union allows trade without tariffs for all countries in the EU.

It has been a major “sticking point” for the British Government in its negotiations with the EU.

Added to this the EU Withdrawal Bill returns to the House of Commons next week on the 12 June 2018, for MP’s to consider the House of Lords amendments. A three line Whip is expected to be enforced with limited discussion allowed,as time is of essence.

The Government of Theresa May however, after many twists and turns within the two Cabinet Committees she created, has finally agreed a “Backstop Option” if the need arises and if “No Deal” is the final outcome, causing a return of the previous hard border before the Good Friday Agreement between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Leader used the Prime Minister’s Question time in the House today to tear into the Government’s position as “a lack of plan.”

Discussions within the Cabinet Committees resulted in a variety of options put forward including making the Irish border a “buffer zone”. This was not agreed in the Cabinet.

But with mounting pressure to put forward a position before a summit of EU leaders on 28 June 2018, it has now been agreed in a Position Paper that a “Temporary Customs Backstop” lasting only one year would continue until December 2021.But as everyone knows “nothing is final until everything is final”.

Brexit Minister David Davis is visiting Brussels to iron out any difficulties, with his counterpart Mr Barnier, in the hope of averting a crisis. It is highly unlikely that the expected answers on UK’s Customs relationship with both the EU and Northern Ireland will find a resolution by the deadline set by the EU Summit end June 2018.

Prime Minister May has always said the UK will leave the Customs Union after Brexit.

The EU has proposed keeping Northern Ireland in the Customs Union. But this was rejected by Theresa May as well as by the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland which holds the deciding hand in Theresa May’s minority Government.

The need for border checks is a maze within a maze. But nobody doubts Britain will amaze the world in tight negotiations.

Victor Cherubim