The Deal of the Century,or so it seems?

The Deal of the Century, or so it seems?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has paused the process of the Brexit Second Reading of the European Withdrawal Agreement after winning it by a majority of 30 votes (votes in favour 329, votes against 309) in the House of Commons today 22 October 2019 and then losing the Programme of Debate vote by 19 votes with the same Labour Party rebel MP’s who voted with the Government, now voting against it.

In this instance two possibilities could emerge irrespective of the Prime Minister desperately wanting to leave the European Union by 23 hours on 31 October 2019.

The first, is that the Prime Minister is waiting see what the European Union is going to do with the results of both votes and particularly, regarding a timeframe for an extension.

The second is perhaps, when is the best time to call a General Election to command a majority of his own in Parliament.

It is also likely that there is a third possibility yet to emerge, probably very soon.                      
                     

Bojo’s thinking?  

Boris is a very colourful but shrewd Prime Minister. He can play hot and cold. He has challenged the Labour Opposition for a General Election, which he knows they can only shout about, but are not expecting a result in their favour.

He has also sensed the public frustration of the delays they have caused with three votes in the Commons on the Brexit vote, losing all three against Brexit. Two of them were during Theresa May’s Premiership and one during the last month.

He has always been a man in a hurry, but strictly speaking, he is all the while playing with “time”. He knows the mood of the European Union, and at the same time is prepared for a “No Deal Brexit”, a clever strategic masterpiece.

How to stop worrying about Brexit?

Can anybody guess that the Sky TV Channel in UK has allocated a time for a “Non-Brexit” programme daily, after public comment of Brexit fatigue, with the continuous programmes broadcast, hour on hour.

Can anyone be foolhardy to venture a guess that the 27 other EU member states are equally “fed-up” with the fracas in the British Parliament.

Boris’ stance was clearly keeping his cards close to his chest and all the time stating : “How to stop worrying about what to do about Brexit, so that you can finish what you need to do, and start doing what you want to do to Britain after Brexit?”

A breakthrough at last or is it?

For the time in years, the House of Commons has given in principle its support to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by two British Prime Ministers, a

major psychological victory, one which few would have contemplated less than a week ago.

While the win on the Brexit legislation (Second Reading of the Bill) is a big moment, the defeat over the timetable motion shows, the Government is not guaranteed victory.

The Threats ahead

While threats did not matter in the past, it matters most now.

The first threat is a move to attach a Second Referendum to the agreed Deal.

The second is a plan by the Labour Opposition to amend the deal for a “continuous Customs Union”.

The third is, if the agreement allows either side to extend the Implementation Period by the end of 2020, and/or other amendments on “Workers’ Rights”

and “Environmental Protection” is introduced.

The one thing that is becoming clear is that Halloween may end without a clean break, unless like everything today, the extraordinary happens.

Victor Cherubim

The European council president, Donald Tusk, has said he will recommend the EU accept  the UK's request for a Brexit extension.

 info and privacy