The Past and the Future we expect

What's gone on in the past decade and what can we expect in 2020's ?

As the decade of 2010 soon ends and the 2020's is before us, we can look forward to all the many new changes ahead with more than curiosity. 

According to the National Geographic: "In the past 10 years,scientists around the world made remarkable progress towards understanding the human body,our planet and the cosmos. What's more scientists in 2010, became more global and collaborative than ever before. So much has happened thanks to so many".

To whittle down the last decade into a couple of pages will not do it justice, so I ask my readers to read the last issue of the National Geographic. The decade has seen numerous advances in understanding our complex world as well as ourselves.

The World in 1960 when I was a young lad?

Over a half a century ago, when I was a young lad,much of the world was also in a broad state of change: we were moving out of the post World War II era and into both the Cold War and the Space Age,with broadening Civil Rights Movement and the Anti Nuclear protests around the world.

I was a student in the United States as a State Department scholar. I had the opportunity of bussing it Greyhound from Michigan to Little Rock,Arkansas and dared to interview Late Governor,Fabus. I stood outside his office one spring morning and waited to be seen by him in his palatial office. I was lucky that Senator Fulbright of "Arkansaw" had also come to the Governor's office. I was hurriedly taken into the Governor's office and introduced to the Governor, as a scholar from Ceylon. The Governor did not know where Ceylon was, but asked me what brought me to Arkansas? I said I wanted to interview him and got his permission to ask a pertinent question.

"Gov. What makes you  feel so much against color"? The Governor replied: " I have nothing against color,so long as it is not black."  I left Little Rock more bemused, as the Governor bid farewell with the comment,"for peace and justice to where you come from?"

In 1961, John F.Kennedy was inaugurated as the 35th President of the United States, Soviet Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first human to fly in space. Freedom riders took buses into the South to bravely challenge segregation and East Germany began construction of the Berlin Wall. By the end of 1961,some 2000 troops were deployed in Vietnam. That was what it was?

Where will we be 50 years from now?

Let me start with UK? In their own very different ways, during our present 2019 General Election,all the major parties have acknowledged that uncertainty and confidence is the key to the future. Not only uncertainty over Brexit, but uncertainty over Climate Change, uncertainty over Gender Equality and Pay, and other uncertainties, have held back, and perhaps, will hold back productivity, in the future? Major steps are needed to get not only the UK economy growing, but also the world economy growing. This needs massive future investment and successive governments have done little more than tinker around at the edges.

What are we seeing? 

Breathing London air is the same as smoking 150 cigarettes a year, experts warn. Living in the UK's most polluted cities and towns increases the risk of a early deaths. Air pollution must be declared "a public health emergency," the British Heart Foundation has declared."It said current EU limits- which the UK now meets- for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are 25 micrograms per metre cubed as an annual average"

World Health Organisation (WHO) limits are tougher-at 10 micrograms per metre cubed as an annual average.Legislation was passed over a decade ago to protect people from passive smoke and similarly decisive action must be taken to protect people from air pollution in the future. What next,about the scarcity of drinking water?

If you can imagine what we will be obsessing over in the next 50 years, what would  be, in your opinion to top your list?

Experts state that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be transformative, Climate Change will dominate, the genetic revolution will be in full force.

When we take them together, these themes paint a illustrating and fascinating picture of our future world, from the very perspective of people living today and have laid the groundwork to shape their own future. 

There is no doubt that technology will play a big role in our lives in the future, but the big ethical or even mythical question is: "will it take away our humanity?" This is important for us now and into the future?

Over the past decade,researchers have made incremental steps towards connecting computers to the human brain. They have made test monkeys to control a computer with only its thoughts; paralysed men and women have been able to move artificial limbs,as well as computers,thanks to brain-computer interface. We are already witnessing how remote control devices are invasive and intrusive. A friend of mine said that "the powers to be" are now able to switch on and off  a  Electric bed heating warm blanket, by monitoring brain waves during sleep, by remote control. Genetic modifications are/or may be possible to shut off mutant genes?

Fresh ideas excite us 

The things we have learned,naturally excite us. Archbishop Tutu recently said: "the public have an insatiable curiosity to know everything except what is worth knowing". We hear teenagers with acne get higher marks at school than those without? Songs are getting shorter because of "Spotify"? Want to know more?

The internet has made our minds more desperate to find out more. Of course, learning from the world wide web may be said to keep us safe and healthy? We are anxious to explore our surroundings and often question why something or what happens.

                                      

In villages and towns around the globe in the days gone by, we heard the gossip, now it is the internet - "the perpetual curiosity shop," the feeling of uncertainty, that compels us to find out like "meerkats about predators, what's going around us.

Will we be able to control our future in any way?

AI is accelerating the digital transformation in all walks of life, in every industry today, with examples spanning manufacturing,retail,finance,health care and many others today. At this rate every endeavour will be able to use AI to simplify human ingenuity in the years ahead?

But let us also for a moment think of societies that attempt to suppress information from the public. Oppressive regimes around the world are able "to militarise" ignorance.

At the same time, the big four, Google,Apple,Microsoft and Amazon (GAMA) are also growing exponentially around the world, that they "think" they have the "Power of God". In many ways these four seem to be bigger in purchasing power than countries and nations and are able to use "knowledge as power." Will nations and nationalities disappear in 50 years?

Governments and people are becoming weary of the power and the potential these bodies now have to cause or airbrush events and news, or  could acquire the power to de-humanise humans, so that people become pawns, under their spell and may not be able to control their future?

Victor Cherubim

FAST FORECASTS FOR 2070

• World population forecasted to reach 10,277,339,229 1
• World sales of electric vehicles reaches 39,566,667 1
• (Moore's Law) Calculations per second, per $1,000, equals 10^35 1
• Largest age cohort for the Brazilian population is 65-69 1
• Largest age cohort for the Mexican population is 65-69 1
• Largest age cohort for the Middle East population is 45-54 1
• Largest age cohort for the African population is 0-4 1
• Largest age cohort for the European population is 55-59 1
• Largest age cohort for the Indian population is 45-49 1
• Largest age cohort for the Chinese population is 55-59 1
• Largest age cohort for the United States population is 30-44 1