The Conservative Party's Dilemma?

The Conservative Party's Dilemma?

Everyone I know talks glibly about a change in leadership in the Conservative Party.It is a hot potato,but no one wants a challenge,leaving Brexit negotiations in chaos and the country having "to change horses midstream".

Quite, because any new leader the Tories propose or produce,will leave the party divided, wounded and vulnerable. It would let Jeremy Corbyn into office by the back door, with plans for "re-nationalisation" as no one has envisaged and the possible end in sight for tuition fees, with the taxpayer funding the changeover.

Theresa May could face a leadership challenge from her own backbenchers if 48 MP's call a leadership vote and plunge Britain into more misery.

The need to get back to Tory basics by booting house ownership and cutting taxes is the rally of some young Tories who are frustrated by the way Jeremy Corbyn has mustered the Labour young, with "Momentum" promises.

If the Conservative Party forces a leadership challenge, it will no doubt be clinical. We have seen over time when the Tories regard a leader as irrevocably damaged, they hardly hesitate to act. The two names that comes to mind are Maggie Thatcher and IDS. Both were finished off before the electorate had a chance. But have the Tories now changed?

David Davis, UK's Chief Negotiator, while inviting his counterpart,EU Chief Negotiator,Michel Barnier, for a working visit to London on 2 February 2018 states:

"As an independent country,when no longer a member of the European Union, the United Kingdon will once again have its own trading policy. This is a vital aspect of this period. For the first time in more than 40 years,we will be able to step out and sign trade deals with old friends - and new allies - around the globe."

Is it "implementation" or "transitional" period?

Theresa May's negotiations

The Conservative Party of diehard Blues has always looked to a woman to please everyone,and please no one simultaneously, during times of party disunity.

Theresa May has fitted the bill perfectly. In the face of impasse in the EU negotiations in December 2017, she managed to pull Britain "out of the valley of thunder." 

Now at the end of a three day visit to China by a British Prime Minister, with the biggest ever business delegation of 50 or more Executives and University Professionals,Theresa May, it is reported, has clinched a $9 billion deal with China, ahead of Brexit. This initiative includes the extension of the Maths Teacher exchange programme from China to UK and the reciprocal English Language Learning programme in China by Britain.

Many will remember,this same Theresa May when she first arrived at Downing Street, demanded national security checks for the £18 billion Hinckley Point Nuclear deal agreed between the French Utility Contractors EDF and the Chinese State backed firm CGN. She renegotiated this contract and obtained a generous minimum price for electricity.

The Chinese are on record to plan long term.The deal Theresa May got on her recent visit was in reciprocity to boost Chinese trade and investment after Brexit.

With this assurance from China, a confident Theresa May has vowed she would not be deflected, even by stark forecasts of an economic price paid for Brexit. She said: "The British people want us to leave the European Union,and that is what we will be doing".

Cost Benefit Analysis

The day Theresa May returned with a vote of confidence, the British Pound rallied to £1.42 to the Greenback.

Britain leaving Europe on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms would reduce growth by 8% over 15 years.

Leaving EU with a Canada style Free Trade deal, will see growth cut by 5%,while even staying, remaining inside the single market would, according to Economic Analysts, reduce growth forecast by 2%.

Deal or No Deal

Making it possible for UK to"negotiate a good trade deal,and also take back control" of money,borders and laws is no easy task.

But Prime Minister,Theresa May has said there are no alternatives. 

All she wanted it appears, is to take control of both sides of the Brexit debate, at least for the time being. She has earned a respite from her braying backbenchers.

How long can it last?

It is anybody's and everybody's guess how long it will last.With her party's current crop of 317 MP's, it only takes 48 MP's or 15% of her strength to call for a vote to trigger a leadership election, which we can expect to be rather bold,if not bloody.

MP's of all parties are most aware that the voting public will no doubt punish a warring party at the polls.

Victor Cherubim